Australian Experts Contradict US Counterparts on China, Say US Can’t Win Taiwan War

ANALYSIS – Just 10 years ago few would have doubted America’s ability to not only deter, but defeat any Communist Chinese (CHICOM) attempt to forcibly seize Taiwan.

But now after years of a relentless and accelerating Chinese military buildup, and the West asleep at the wheel for much of this time, there is increasing doubt.

Today the most important question we can ask is:

Can the U.S., even with its allies, defeat a Chinese invasion of Taiwan?

Some in the U.S. say it will be a tough fight, devastating to both sides, but the U.S., et al., will succeed.

However, in Australia, an ally who has become increasingly pivotal to U.S. plans to counter China, a group of dovish defense experts says the U.S. can’t win, even with allies in the fight.

Hugh White, the former hawk, now defeatist, ex-Deputy Secretary for Strategy and Intelligence in the Australian Department of Defense, said: “I do not think there is any credible chance that America, with or without Australia’s support, could win a war with China over Taiwan.”

He added that it would be a mistake for the U.S., and Australia, to get involved in such a war.

He also noted what many agree with, that any war between the U.S. and China over Taiwan would “probably be the biggest and most disruptive war the world has seen since 1945.”

According to White, “by far the most likely outcome would be a costly stalemate in which both sides lost heavily but neither side could secure a decisive, war-winning advantage.”

Granted there is debate even among U.S. military planners, and think tanks, with some pointing to a growing disparity favoring Beijing between what China can bring to bear quickly against Taiwan, and what the U.S. can bring to the important first days of any fight, to argue the U.S. can’t win.

But others point to America finally coming around to the growing threat with increased resources and plans focused exclusively on keeping Taiwan free from Chinese conquest. And then there are the expanded weapons sales which began under President Trump and expanded since the Russian invasion of Ukraine (albeit still too slow to arrive).

Taiwan has also finally begun to show signs it is serious about its own defense, increasing and expanding mandatory military training and adding resources for defending the island.

All positive developments.

Per an entry in my January 9 PDB, the Center for Strategic and international Studies (CSIS) came to a different conclusion. In that PDB, I note CSIS’ conclusion that the war (projected for 2026) would produce horrible losses on all sides, including Taiwan and Japan, but the U.S. would succeed:

War game suggests Chinese invasion of Taiwan would fail at a huge cost to US, Chinese and Taiwanese militaries. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2026 would result in thousands of casualties among Chinese, United States, Taiwanese and Japanese forces, and it would be unlikely to result in a victory for Beijing, according to CSIS, a prominent Washington think tank, which conducted simulations of a possible conflict. A war over Taiwan could leave a victorious US military in as crippled a state as the Chinese forces it defeated. At the end of the conflict, at least two US aircraft carriers would lie at the bottom of the Pacific and China’s modern navy, which is the largest in the world, would be in “shambles.”

CSIS’s ‘The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan’ predicted that China’s “high losses” might destabilize Chinese Communist Party rule, even if Taiwan’s economy would be left shattered and the U.S. global position would also be damaged for many years.

One point the Australian experts address, which I have also written about, is that among various war scenarios, a blockade of Taiwan may be more likely than a conventional invasion.

Hugh White argues a blockade would be “a far cheaper and less risky way” for Beijing to achieve its objectives.

If China establishes what White calls “a credible air and sea exclusion zone around Taiwan,” how does the U.S. respond?

Clinton Fernandes a former intelligence officer with the Australian Army Intelligence Corps and now a professor at the University of New South Wales, also believes that a blockade that prevents 80% of ships and aircraft from entering or leaving Taiwan, would be the most likely option.

“It means mine laying by air and naval units, particularly submarines, blockading ports, inspecting maritime traffic including commercial shipping, intercepting aircraft, and attacking adversary military forces as necessary,” he explained.

I discussed this gray zone blockade option in more detail in my earlier piece, ‘As US General Warns of War, China Steadily ‘Blockading’ Taiwan to Avoid All-Out War.’

Meanwhile, White insists the war cannot be won based on a basic but persuasive premise.

America would not be able to force Beijing to concede over Taiwan without using nuclear weapons, and the U.S. is not willing to risk Chinese nuclear retaliation for Taiwan.

And many might agree with that.

But that assumption is flawed, and also depends on the U.S. leader at the time. Biden might make far different decisions from say Trump, or DeSantis, leading up to and during a conflict.

It also depends on what the U.S. and allies do between now and any future conflict.

How the war plays out (China sinking one or more U.S. aircraft carriers) might make it impossible for the U.S. not to use nuclear weapons, albeit in a limited or tactical way.

Or the U.S. could use devastating conventional attacks, with nuclear-like effects, such as destroying the Three Gorges Dam across the Yangtze River, flooding much of China’s farmland below it. This would destroy China’s food supply and bring the regime to its knees.

We discuss this devastating conventional option in a paper published by the Center for American Defense Studies (CADS).

So, the Chinese regime can never be sure of how the U.S. might react and that will likely factor into any CHICOM calculus.

One thing is certain – we must constantly convey to China and our friends and allies a resolute commitment to victory if forced to fight. This is the key to deterrence, not the dovish ‘we can’t win a war’ defeatism exhibited by these Australians.

For now, despite the Aussie arguments, I believe that while the question of winning may remain unresolved, I know losing is not an option.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.

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