PAUL’S DEFENSE BRIEF (PDB): Strategy without hubris: How China rose by managing America’s reaction. Why didn’t China’s rise trigger containment sooner? For three decades, Beijing’s economic weight expanded dramatically, its military modernized at speed, and its diplomatic footprint widened across every region.
This would lead us to expect sharper and earlier confrontation as capabilities converged.
Instead, U.S.-Chinese rivalry deepened gradually, punctuated by crises but rarely exploding into decisive pushback. The U.S. (foolishly) remained engaged economically, its alliances held but were not mobilized to balance Chinese power, and many countries hedged rather than chose sides.
Beijing did not rise by openly challenging the U.S.-led geopolitical order. Nor did it passively accept it. Instead, it advanced while carefully calibrating its actions against anticipated backlash. It competed, but it did so in ways that complicated, delayed, or diluted any decisive counterbalancing. Gains were real, but thresholds were managed.
To better understand this, Oriana Skylar Mastro’s book, “Upstart: How China Became a Great Power,” becomes particularly useful. READ MORE at War on the Rocks.
FOR YOUR EYES ONLY – Here’s a roundup of the top defense news of the last couple of days from conservative national security expert PAUL CRESPO.
THE PDB – Not the President’s Daily Briefing, but almost as good – PAUL’S DEFENSE BRIEF:
NATIONAL SECURITY
51% of Americans think Trump’s military action in Iran has not been worthwhile. Ipsos/Reuters poll found 24% think war has been worth the costs and benefits.
Avoiding another 9/11: 3 key reasons to reauthorize Section 702. General Paul Nakasone (Ret.), former director of NSA and former Commander of Cyber Command gives his take on reauthorization and why it matters to future U.S. national security.
HOMELAND SECURITY
Army ROTC cadets who fought back against classroom gunman recall how fallen officer defended them in Old Dominion University shooting. They say they owe their lives to mentorship and training they received from Lt. Col. Brandon Shah, senior instructor killed in the attack in Virginia.
DEFENSE POLITICS
As Pentagon reviews effectiveness of women in ground combat roles, group of lawmakers is promoting legislation that would enshrine the ability for women to serve in those roles. Combat effectiveness be damned.
US POWER OVERSEAS
IRAN CEASEFIRE
Lebanon and Israel held their first direct diplomatic talks in decades in Washington following more than month of war between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah terrorist group. Secretary of State Marco Rubio calling it “historic opportunity” but making clear that no breakthrough would happen right away.
IRAN CAMPAIGN
Navy finally confirmed an MQ-4C Triton uncrewed surveillance drone crashed on April 9 while flying over Persian Gulf. Circumstances remain unknown, but incident has been described as a mishap.
Tactical success, strategic failure? Washington walks path to defeat in Iran. Six weeks after U.S. and Israel launched war against Iran, what was political objective? Not military means and objectives — those are the hammer, not the nail. The nail is: What condition in the world, what durable change in Iran’s relationship with U.S. and its neighbors will these strikes produce?
REGIONAL/GLOBAL IMPACT
Italy’s conservative prime minister Giorgia Meloni suspended Italy’s defense treaty with Israel on same day she was harshly criticized by President Trump for not assisting U.S. in its campaign against Iran. Trump needs to say less.
Unheeded lessons from U.S. warship nearly sunk by an Iranian mine. 38 years ago, an Iranian mine tore hole in hull of USS Samuel B. Roberts, guided missile frigate helping to escort reflagged Kuwaiti tankers through Strait of Hormuz.
RUSSIA THREAT/UKRAINE WAR
Russia’s hypothetical use of its alleged space nuke anti-satellite capability was focus of Space Command’s latest tabletop wargame, which pushed U.S. government, allies, and dozens of defense companies to speculate on fallout from weapon’s launch.
Orbán’s loss won’t stop Russian influence campaigns, but it shows they’re beatable (or overrated). The electoral defeat of Hungary’s Viktor Orbán dealt blow to Russia’s foreign-influence operations — and illustrated how Kremlin’s approach is changing.
Ukraine strikes drone production, military support deal with Germany. Berlin will get access to Ukraine’s cutting-edge drone expertise in return for extra help in war against Russia.
EUROPEAN DEFENSE
Zelensky hails Magyar’s win over Orbán as ‘the victory of light over darkness’ in Hungary. Ukrainian leader hopes for “pragmatic” and “friendly” relations with new government in contrast to hostility of previous pro-Russian regime.
NORTH KOREA THREAT
INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
Japan’s decade-long march towards arms exports as it eases pacifist export controls.
Rattled by Trump, U.S. allies eye Japan’s biggest arms opening since WWII.
US MILITARY
Air Force strikes $270 million deal for lightweight, solar powered drones using software with data from Ukraine-Russia war. The drones can be launched by two-person crew and fly extended-loitering scout missions.
Navy is changing way it does business and it’s still pretty pricey. USS Boise repair cancelation represents what must be considered an extreme case of military service over-spending.
END of PDB
FOR MORE DETAILED, UNCENSORED, INTELLIGENCE, AND ANALYSIS FROM PAUL CRESPO, SUBSCRIBE TO HIS SUBSTACK.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.
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Polls, smolls! Who are these polsters polling? The conservatives are behind what Trump does. So the polls are still fake, big fake news. The ones who run this crap need to understand WE ARE NOT BUYING THEIR BS! And regarding the news who runs this BS, remove their right to lie quite literally about their so called NEWS! Bankrupt the cheaters in court! Put em out of business. Sick of the liberals blowing smoke up our butts. Enough is enough. I never ever listen or read the news these days because of the rampant lies! And I pick up enough to be apprised. GO TRUMP!