New Poll Reveals Odds For Republican Elite’s Favorite Candidate

With news that current GOP presidential front-runner Donald Trump will have to be in a federal courtroom rather than on the campaign trail next year, look for more stories about potential “lifeboat” candidate Gov. Glenn Youngkin may yet get into the race (particularly from media outlets in the Rupert Murdoch sphere of influence – the Fox News boss owner has been trying to convince Youngkin to run).

As I've written before, this storyline, while appealing to those who believe that a Trump nomination wouldn't just reelect Joe Biden but sink GOP hopes up and down the ballot, ignores the mechanics of selecting a nominee.

And it also sidesteps the biggest obstacle of all: Trump's hold on the Republican base.

But let's add one more data point to that argument: a polling datal from Youngkin's home state of Virginia. According to an Aug. 29 poll from Roanoke College:

Trump maintains a commanding lead of 47% as the first choice among self-reported Virginia Republicans, followed by DeSantis at 13% and the rest of the candidates in single digits. While Trump's level of support remains about the same as our last poll, the percentage of Republicans reporting DeSantis as their first choice has dropped by 15% since our last poll in May. We also asked Virginians to report their second-choice candidate for the Republican nomination, where the results showed a more competitive field. Approximately 19% of Republicans reported DeSantis as their second choice, followed by Trump (17%), Ramaswamy (17%), Youngkin (14%), Scott (9%), Pence (8%) and Haley (6%). [emphasis added]

Even in his home state, where Youngkin enjoys a 51 percent approval rating, he finishes third as a back-up choice in the Republican presidential race.

That's hardly a ringing, grassroots endorsement of a Youngkin candidacy…from the voters who know him best.

But wish casting and hopium are powerful political drugs. It's still conceivable that plenty of national Republicans who don't like Trump, have soured on DeSantis, can't abide Ramaswamy and are done with Mike Pence will cast longing eyes at – and write checks to – the Virginia governor.

That's their prerogative. But it doesn't change the hard fact that even if Youngkin decides to cast away his work to help Republicans take control of the Virginia General Assembly this November and make a vanity run for the nomination, it's likely to fail. And fail spectacularly, even in his own backyard.

However…it's not a wise thing to bet against a politician's ego (or the ego-stroking abilities of various political courtiers and hangers-on). If we want an early clue about Youngkin or any other candidate getting into the race after the current field has run its course… keep an eye on Nevada.

That state has an early filing requirement for major party political candidates. According to the Secretary of State's office:

Major political party candidates running for the partisan office of the United States President, must file a Declaration of Candidacy, and a list of his / her (6) electors and (6) alternate electors, during candidate filing between October 1 – October 15, of the year immediately preceding the presidential preference primary election…

That means this year's deadline is Oct. 15, 2023. We'll know who the candidates are in the Nevada caucus (which is what the state party wants, rather than a primary) at that time. Will Mr. Youngkin be on that list? We'll see. Just like we might see who among the currently declared candidates isn't on the list.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.

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