The 2024 GOP Nomination May Not Be Locked Down Yet

President Donald Trump’s comfortable victory in Iowa has generated a number of reactions, from immediate calls for the rest of the field to pack it in and allow a Trump coronation to cries from an also-ran that the press interfered in the results when it called the race early.

Whatever. The plain fact is Trump met expectations in Iowa, even as caucus turnout plummeted. And even on that score, a win is a win, and let’s head to the next one.

This is New Hampshire, where the race is more fluid than it ever was in Iowa, but Trump still has a double-digit lead over Nikki Haley.

Expectations for Haley in New Hampshire are very high – perhaps too high. Anything less than a win or a close second-place finish could prove fatal to her prospects heading into her home state of South Carolina.

Trump has an Iowa-like lead over Haley and the rest of the field.

Does all of this mean, then, that Trump’s nomination is inevitable? The numbers indicate that right now. And most certainly, Team Trump wants that to become not just the dominant narrative, but the only possible outcome. The sooner, the better.

But there’s a thing about presidential politics…strange things happen, and that which seems inevitable can suddenly collapse.

And let’s not forget that GOP winner of the Iowa caucuses hasn’t gone on to win the party’s nomination since George W. Bush in 2000.

The bottom line is there’s a lot of campaigning yet to come. The field is already smaller heading in New Hampshire with Vivek Ramaswamy’s stunt campaign finally coming to an end. The field will narrow even more following the New Hampshire primary on Jan. 23.

After that, there’s a long pause before voting starts again in Nevada on Feb. 8 and the critical South Carolina primary on Feb. 24. 

South Carolina has a habit of not just winnowing the GOP field, but selecting the eventual nominee (save for 2012, when Newt Gingrich won the primary, and not much afterwards).

South Carolina is a long way off in political terms. But it could, once again, be the last word in this nominating contest. Until then, settle in for a lot of campaigning, even more hand-wringing.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.