Just in case you missed it… there's still a presidential race underway. It's easy to think the whole affair is over and the nominees have been chosen – leaving us with an uninspiring Biden-Trump rematch.
The other Republican contenders for the nomination will strenuously disagree with any assessment that says the race is over. But as The Washington Post's Philip Bump lays out with icy clarity, history shows that the current field of wannabes has no chance of claiming the nomination:
If we use the Iowa caucuses in each contested Republican nominating fight since 1980 as our point of reference, we see that Trump's current national lead was exceeded only once: by George W. Bush in the 2000 primaries. Bush, as you might be aware, went on to easily win his party's nomination. The next biggest lead in the average was held by Bob Dole in 1996. He also won the nomination.
Both Dole and Bush also won the Iowa caucuses, which no other eventual Republican nominee has done in a contested primary campaign since 1980. Even Trump lost in Iowa in 2016, barely; he quickly pivoted to accusing the winner, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.), of cheating.
Bump notes that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has put his chips all-in on Iowa – just as South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott has done. Each man hopes an Iowa win will re-energize his campaign. And that makes some sense. Donors, media, volunteers and much more tend to flock to winners.
But here's the thing about winning Iowa: it's not exactly a bellwether of future electoral success. As the Post's Meryl Kornfield writes regarding Scott's Iowa shift:
Campaign leadership also assured donors that there would be movement in October, comparing the current phase of the race to the second or third inning of a baseball game and referring to the previous low polling of previous caucus winners Mike Huckabee, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) and former senator Rick Santorum (R-Pa.) at comparable points. (None went on to win the nomination.)
“None went on to win the nomination.” The best case for the Trump challengers is they are the exceptions to this history, and an Iowa win will propel them to victories in New Hampshire, South Carolina and elsewhere. We shall see.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.
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