Could This Disputed Shoal In The South China Sea Spark War With Beijing?

WEDNESDAY PDB – Beijing hits back at Manila over Scarborough Shoal barrier ‘farce.’ Chinese foreign ministry insists the shoal is Chinese territory and dismisses the removal of its barrier of buoys by the Philippines. I wrote about this here.

Beijing backed down last month over the Second Thomas Shoal when Filipino vessels resupplied a small Filipino outpost despite Chinese ships using water cannons to try to stop them, but analysts say it won’t do so this time.

Hu Bo, director of the Beijing-based think tank South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative (SCSPI), said it was unlikely that China would allow Philippine vessels to enter the disputed Scarborough Shoal area.

“If Philippine vessels were allowed in the lagoon, that would mean that China’s control over Huangyan Island was in danger,” Hu said. “That’s the bottom line.”

The Scarborough Shoal is a triangle-shaped chain of reefs and rocks about 120 nautical miles (222km) from the Philippine island of Luzon. Both China and the Philippines claim it as an “integral part” of their own territory.

Calling on the country’s fishermen to keep operating in the waters, the Philippine Coast Guard said on Wednesday it was exploring multi-law enforcement efforts so it could enter the fish-rich shoal.

THIS MINOR CONFLICT COULD QUICKLY ESCALATE AS U.S. MILITARY FORCES INCREASINGLY BACK MANILA.

FOR YOUR EYES ONLY – Here’s a roundup of today’s other top defense stories from conservative national security expert PAUL CRESPO.

Not the President’s Daily Brief, but almost as good – PAUL’S DAILY BRIEFING – the PDB:

POLITICS – FEDERAL SHUTDOWN

House advances GOP-backed spending bills, but threat of government shutdown remains. House Republicans voted to advance four conservative spending bills on Tuesday in a long-sought display of unity. However, even if the House were to pass all four bills to fund the Departments of Defense, Homeland Security, State and Agriculture for another year, they contain spending cuts that make them dead on arrival in the Senate.

White House: Shutdown would harm military pay and national security. About 1.3 million active-duty troops could see paychecks delayed by a government shutdown.

Rapidly approaching government shutdown has Congress in crisis mode. The Senate is preparing its own bipartisan plan for a stopgap measure to buy some time and keep offices funded past Saturday’s deadline.

Menendez indictment prompts calls in US Congress for Egypt aid rethink. Charges that Senator Bob Menendez accepted bribes in exchange for wielding his influence to aid the Egyptian government are what prompted the calls in the U.S. Congress on Tuesday for the Biden administration to rethink $235 million in military aid to Cairo.

NATIONAL SECURITY

Inside America’s plans for an autonomous, AI-powered military. The U.S. is accelerating an effort to revolutionize modern warfare by fielding swarms of self-operating drones and weapons systems. The push will shape the next generation of war and hopefully give America a leg up on China in the new global arms race.

The US government should stockpile more critical minerals. The U.S. lacks sufficient stocks of critical minerals to support the defense industrial base, from nickel in superalloys for jet engines to rare earth elements in magnets for guided munitions.

CHINA THREAT 

Congressional budget dysfunction poses a threat to US security. Despite knowing China is America’s “pacing” threat, Congress’ failure to sufficiently fund the requirements of the U.S. military may have a higher likelihood of undermining our security than does China.

RUSSIA THREAT– UKRAINE WAR

American Abrams tanks have arrived in Ukraine. Will they shift the balance? Ukraine has said it will use the US-made tanks sparingly, and they’re unlikely to make an immediate strategic impact — unless there’s a breakthrough.

Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 581. Russia released a video reportedly showing Viktor Sokolov, commander of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in Crimea, at a meeting with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu a day after Ukrainian special forces claimed he was among dozens of officers killed in an attack on the fleet’s Sevastopol naval base. Ukraine said it was clarifying information regarding Sokolov.

SPACE THREAT

Space Force’s speedy launch record clears way for bigger launches—faster. The “Victus Nox” mission is part of the service’s “tactically responsive space” effort to respond quickly to in-orbit threats.

Deterrence in space requires more than SilentBarker’s eyes. When the U.S., or any country for that matter, declares a deterrent threat to an adversary state, that threat must be seen as credible by the enemy.

INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

US shifting personnel to drone base as French forces pull out of Niger. The Pentagon said Monday that it is “assessing” the implications of France’s upcoming military withdrawal from Niger for the U.S. military, which still has about 1,100 troops hunkered down at a drone site in the country.

QUID PRO QUO ‘ALLY’ – Erdogan says Turkey’s parliament will ratify Sweden’s entry into NATO if the US sells Turkey F-16 fighters. A bid to join the military alliance has been held up for months by the Turkish leader.

A rare success emerges in the war on terror. Somalia has become a surprising bright spot in the global battle pitting the U.S. and its allies against insurgents.

The US has suspended some aid to Gabon after the military takeover. Team Biden suspended most non-humanitarian aid to Gabon after a military takeover in the country last month.

Serbia demands that NATO take over policing of northern Kosovo after a deadly shootout. Serbia’s president demanded a NATO-led peacekeeping force take over for the national law enforcement agency in northern Kosovo after a daylong shootout between armed Serbs and Kosovar police.

POLITICAL HARASSMENT AGAINST MUSK – EU official calls out X as largest promotor of disinformation. “My message for Twitter/X is…We will be watching what you do,” official says.

US MILITARY

3 deaths in 3 months: Parris Island loses 2 instructors, clerk after string of recent losses. Three Marines have died at Parris Island since July, including two instructors at the South Carolina base. Two of the deaths occurred within days of each other last week.

Navy to start fielding new hearing protection helmet this month. The new HGU-99/P Hearing Protection Helmet aims to facilitate crew communication and curtail hearing loss.

OPTEMPO, ‘resource shortfalls’ plague Alaska brigade: leaked report. The external assessment, a climate improvement tool, also praised the unit’s ‘pride’ and ‘cohesion’ at lower levels.

VERY GOOD BOY! WOOF! – Congress may create medal to honor heroic military dogs. A new decoration that would honor military working dogs is included in the House version of the annual defense bill.

END of PDB