ANALYSIS – The despicable Hamas terror attack against Israeli civilians on October 7 was always about more than Gaza or the West Bank; it was part of a bigger Iranian effort to become the regional powerhouse.
This is an effort that has been consistently aided and abetted by Joe Biden and before him by Barack Obama, with billions of dollars gifted to Iran by both over the years.
And Hamas, though a Sunni group, receives most of its arms, money and training from the Iranian regime, which is Shia-led.
Part of Iran's effort involves defeating the small but nuclear-armed Israel, not by outright invasion but by attrition.
As Seth Cropsey, former Deputy Undersecretary of the Navy, writes in The Hill, Iran's goal “is to draw Israel into a series of brutal wars that overstretch its military capabilities.”
In this way, Cropsey argues, Israel, with a population of only nine million, should avoid a protracted and debilitating ground offensive in Gaza but should instead focus northward.
This may be difficult after the brutal Hamas attacks that came from Gaza in Israel's southwest.
Israel has ordered residents of northern Gaza to evacuate south in anticipation of its offensive. Around 600,000 people have reportedly evacuated Gaza City, but 100,000 remain.
Meanwhile, Iran has warned that a multi-front war against Israel is becoming more likely as the Israel Defense Force (IDF) prepares for a ground assault against Hamas in Gaza, threatening “preemptive actions in the coming hours,” most likely by its other terrorist proxies in the region, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon.
As The Messenger reported: “Leaders of the resistance will not allow the Zionist regime to take any action in Gaza,” the Iranian Foreign Minister said on state TV late Monday. “All possible options and scenarios are there for Hezbollah.”
“In the coming hours, we can expect a preemptive action by the resistance front.”
But Iran isn't just threatening Israel. The Iranian Foreign Minister also said, ”Iran cannot remain a spectator” if Israeli troops go into the strip and that the United States would also face ”significant damages” in the wake of such an incursion…
Hezbollah, the Shia terrorist group and political movement, controls southern Lebanon and is considered an integrated part of Iran's military and security apparatus, working directly with Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the terrorist Quds Force.
If Hezbollah does enter the war, it will be Iran's work, Eitan Shamir, a senior lecturer at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, told The Messenger.
“The Iranians are activating it, they press the button: Go,” Shamir said. “So, it's basically a war with Iran.”
Israel may now be seeing that the greater threat comes from Hezbollah and Iran. It is evacuating 28 towns along the Lebanon border for greater “operational freedom” to tackle escalating attacks by Hezbollah and other Iranian-backed groups in Lebanon and Syria.
Since the Gaza attacks on Israel, several Israeli civilians have been killed as Hezbollah has fired rockets, missiles and anti-tank munitions at IDF positions and attempted cross-border raids on at least two occasions, while Israel has responded with artillery, air and drone strikes.
Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad are also responsible for some of the attacks emanating from southern Lebanon.
Meanwhile, in Syria, elements of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are believed to have deployed to their southwestern border with Israel, along with Iranian-backed militias from Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan, from where there have been exchanges of fire with Israeli forces.
This is a far bigger threat. Israel's potential northern front.
As Cropsey notes:
Israel can still win this war, but only if it deals with the larger threat first.
Hamas can, for now, be managed. Israeli air assets can destroy the majority of Hamas's longer-range rockets, limiting its ability to stress Iron Dome, while giving Israeli intelligence time to map the terrain in Gaza. Meanwhile, Israel can shift its best offensive ground and air forces north and conduct an interdiction effort in Lebanon, likely followed by a ground campaign to compress Hezbollah's launch points for its missiles, and ultimately destroy Hezbollah and Iranian forward-deployed combat power.
After that Israel can again turn its full attention to Gaza and Hamas.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.
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