Leaked documents suggest that Russia’s threshold for using tactical nuclear weapons is much lower than what was previously thought. If the Russian Navy loses a fifth of its ballistic missile submarines or even three cruisers, it might be enough to trigger a nuclear strike. An enemy incursion could also spark a nuclear retaliation.
The documents reveal that Russia is still planning for a potential conflict with China, despite improved relations between the two countries in recent years. The leak consists of 29 secret military files written between 2008 and 2014. The source of the leak has not been disclosed. (RELATED: Russian Hackers Threaten To Leak Trump Documents Unless Ransom Is Paid)
The Financial Times reported that experts who reviewed and verified the documents said that Russia’s threshold for using nuclear weapons is lower than what the Kremlin has publicly acknowledged:
“This is the first time that we have seen documents like this reported in the public domain,” said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin. “They show that the operational threshold for using nuclear weapons is pretty low if the desired result can’t be achieved through conventional means.”
Russia’s tactical nuclear weapons, which can be delivered by land or sea-launched missiles or from aircraft, are designed for limited battlefield use in Europe and Asia, as opposed to the larger “strategic” weapons intended to target the US. Modern tactical warheads can still release significantly more energy than the weapons dropped on Nagasaki and Hiroshima in 1945.
Although the files date back 10 years and more, experts claim they remain relevant to current Russian military doctrine. The documents were shown to the FT by western sources.
The defensive plans expose deeply held suspicions of China among Moscow’s security elite even as Putin began forging an alliance with Beijing, which as early as 2001 included a nuclear no-first-strike agreement.
Ties between Moscow and Beijing have strengthened considerably since Xi Jinping assumed power in 2012. However, the war in Ukraine has cemented Russia’s status as the junior partner, much to Vladimir Putin’s displeasure.
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