Peaceful Post-Putin? History Shows Dangers of Regime Change in Russia

During the Soviet Union’s heyday, “Kremlinology” was the favorite game among those whose job was to watch the personal and palace intrigues of the top party brass.

The current murderous Russian autocrat, 70-year-old Vladimir Putin, has brought Kremlinology back to life. Western analysts are trying to figure out the most likely scenario not only for whether Vlad stays in power, but who might replace him (and how the change occurs).

Writing in Foreign Affairs, Johns Hopkins Prof. Sergey Radchenko says there’s a spotty record of Russian leaders being removed ahead of their time (otherwise known as a coup). But that doesn’t mean a swift change can’t occur. In the past, “palace coups were about personal relations in the corridors of power: naked ambitions and the backstabbing of rivals.”

Any Putin successor, however, is:

…implicated in Putin’s many violent acts, including his invasion of Ukraine. And on the surface, it seems that each one’s ascension would change little about Russia’s foreign agenda. But the Kremlin’s power plays rarely involve questions of principle, and successors may well break with the behavior of predecessors when convenient. That means that Putin’s eventual replacement does not have to be invested in his neo-imperialist agenda. Indeed, were Putin ousted, his successors would likely blame Ukraine on his decisions and try to begin with a clean slate.

Analysts, of course, do not know whether losses in Ukraine will shake Putin’s hold on power. And his successor may ultimately continue the war to placate Russia’s ultranationalists or simply because of inertia. But if Putin does go, the world should use his departure as a chance to resume negotiations for Russia’s withdrawal from Ukraine. A post-Putin Russia may still be autocratic, but it does not have to continue his reckless overseas adventures.

That last bit – about resuming negotiations – assumes a great deal about the willingness, not to mention the sincerity, of any such discussion. So far, no one inside the Putin circle has shown the least inclination toward negotiations of any real sort.

And should the West, let alone Ukraine, negotiate with a state that’s committed war crimes?

But back to the game of Kremlinology…

An imperfect, but still fascinating, parallel to how Russia can ditch a seemingly powerful autocrat in a very short span of time comes from the last days of Czar Nicholas II. Yes, the Russians embraced what quickly became a worse and more murderous version of its old autocracy. And those strains still exist today. But so does the lesson: Absolute power can seem unassailable…right up to the moment it falls in a heap (no negotiation required).

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.

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