ANALYSIS – And what can we do about it? Even now our major enemies are constantly preparing to destroy America. Among them, Russia is engaged in a hybrid war against the West due to its support for Ukraine.
Hybrid warfare or “gray zone” operations involves usually covert or unattributed actions that fall below the threshold of open warfare. And they are relatively cheap and easy to conduct.
Witness China's gray zone operations in the South China Sea against the Philippines, Japan and Taiwan.
Intelligence reports have implicated Russian sabotage and assassination teams operating in various NATO countries.
They could target military bases or infrastructure. But beyond these tactical operations, Vladimir Putin may be planning something far bigger. And while a major cyber attack could be part of it, the Kremlin may be able to do a lot of damage by simply selectively taking out our internet and GPS by other means. (RELATED: US Adversary Launches Terrifying New Weapon With Top Secret Cargo)
This would wreak havoc on our electronic infrastructure which undergirds much of our economy and society, from banking to transportation, aviation, public services and communication. And of concern, we don't appear to have any kind of real backup plan if they do.
But how could the Russians do this?
Well, according to Business Insider, NATO sources say that Russia is likely already mapping underwater internet cables. Moscow is also believed to be behind recent aviation-related GPS interference in Europe and elsewhere.
Melanie Garson, at University College London, notes in relation to these attack options that: “Russia has long been developing this capability and it is currently a cheap and effective way of malicious gray-zone interference.”
In May, NATO's intelligence chief David Cattler warned that Russia may be planning to target the undersea cables in retribution for the West's support for Ukraine. And, as we have become increasingly dependent on the internet, these cables have become increasingly vital. (RELATED: Potent US Force Heads To Geopolitical Hotspot – Can Eliminate Targets Virtually Anywhere)
Undersea cables now span around 745,000 miles and are responsible for 95% of international data streams.
In 2008, accidentally severed cables in the Mediterranean disrupted internet services across the Middle East and India. And the world has only grown exponentially more reliant on these cables in the years since.
Following Cattler's warning, Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, warned in June that these undersea cables had in fact become a legitimate target for Russia.
This all came after reports suggest Ukraine was behind the sabotage in 2022 of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline that transfers gas from Russia to Germany.
“If we proceed from the proven complicity of Western countries in blowing up the Nord Streams, then we have no constraints – even moral – left to prevent us from destroying the ocean floor cable communications of our enemies,” Medvedev posted on Telegram.
Business Insider notes “It's a scenario that has NATO's planners increasingly worried.” It adds:
If the cables are seriously damaged or disabled, swaths of the internet services we take for granted and that our economies rely on, including calls, financial transactions, and streaming, would be wiped out.
Carl-Oskar Bohlin, Sweden's minister for civil defense, said damage to a telecommunications cable running under the Baltic Sea in 2023 was the result of “external force or tampering,” though he did not provide details.
In October 2023, the Swedish government said its undersea telecoms cable with Estonia was damaged at roughly the same time as a gas pipeline and cable linking Finland and Estonia. Investigators pointed to sabotage.
And Finnish investigators said they had identified vessels operating in the area where the damage to the pipeline and cable occurred, naming two of them, a Russian-flagged ship and a Chinese-owned vessel.
So, what can we do?
Foreign Policy reported in June that NATO has begun taking more action to safeguard undersea cables, setting up a system that would automatically warn of attempted interference.
But more must be done.
In its report this month, the CSIS called for the US to increase international cooperation to coordinate a response to a potential attack on cables.
The report noted that the current international legal framework for undersea-cable sabotage was “complex and fragmented, with different international legal regimes determining responsibility and punishment.”
“When cables are sabotaged in international waters, there is no regime to hold the perpetrator accountable,” it added.
Meanwhile, Garson warns, in Business Insider, that government fallback plans are needed in case the systems fail entirely.
“Countries need to not only take measures to protect but also to make sure that the communications system is resilient, e.g., with robust alternatives,” Garson said.
We can also consider state-sponsored sabotage like this an act of war, but that's a whole other discussion.
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Will China, Iran??
Russia, China, Iran, ISIS, Islamic state, mafia, even democrats/republicans if they get desperate. Maybe even some kid with cyber skills trying to make his name.