The results of Germany’s recent federal election have set the stage for a seismic shift in the country’s political landscape. Exit polls have shown that the neo-liberal Christian Democrats, led by Friedrich Merz, have emerged as the dominant force, securing around one-third of the vote. The populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) has come in a strong second, capturing nearly 20 percent of the vote and significantly outperforming the other coalition parties of the outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government.
Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU), along with its Bavarian counterpart, the Christian Social Union (CSU), appears set to form a new government in the Bundestag. With the party projected to hold 29 percent of the vote, it is in line to claim the chancellorship. However, while the result positions Merz to take over from Scholz, there’s a sense of caution within the CDU ranks. The party, which had hoped to cross the “psychologically important” 30 percent threshold, fell just short. Despite this, Merz is expected to be Germany’s next leader, marking a shift towards the center-right.
The right-wing, anti-immigration party almost doubled its share of the vote from 2021, securing around 19.5 percent—an outcome that its leader Alice Weidel described as a “historic success.” In response to the party’s growth, Weidel expressed openness to forming a coalition with the CDU. However, the idea of an AfD-CDU coalition remains highly controversial, as Merz has vowed to maintain a firewall between the two parties, citing ideological differences.
Merz’s victory, although decisive, will likely require navigating a complex coalition-building process. A ‘Black/Red’ coalition between the CDU and the leftist Social Democrats (SPD) could still fall short of a majority, compelling Merz to explore possible alliances with the Green Party or other smaller factions.
Without a coalition with the AfD, Merz may struggle to deliver on key promises, leaving an opening for the AfD to continue its rise and potentially secure an even larger share of the vote in the 2029 elections.
The AfD’s strong showing is a result of growing dissatisfaction with Germany’s immigration policies, energy strategies, and broader progressive agendas. The party’s platform, which focuses on nationalism, stricter immigration controls, and economic conservatism, has resonated with a sizable portion of the electorate. The increased support for the AfD is seen as a direct challenge to Germany’s political establishment and is expected to have a significant impact.
President Donald Trump celebrated the outcome on Truth Social, framing the result as a victory against “mass migration” and the progressive agenda. Trump’s remarks resonated with his supporters, drawing parallels between the rise of right-wing populism in Germany and the broader global trend of populist movements gaining ground.
On the other side of the political spectrum, the results reflect a significant setback for Germany’s leftist coalition government, particularly the SPD, which has seen its support plummet from nearly 26 percent in 2021 to around 16 percent in the 2025 election. The Greens, too, have seen a decline in their vote share, from 14.7 percent to 13.5 percent. SPD General Secretary Matthias Miersch admitted that the party had suffered a “historic defeat.”
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Sanity returning? In order for it to return it would have had to be there before. Which is questionable.