As the 2024 presidential election approaches its climax, a recent poll from esteemed political analyst Ann Selzer has sent shockwaves through the political landscape. Her survey, released just days before the election, indicates that Vice President Kamala Harris has surged to a narrow three-point lead over former President Donald Trump in Iowa—a state long regarded as a Republican stronghold.
According to Selzer’s findings, Harris has garnered the support of 56% of women voters compared to Trump’s 36%. Notably, this margin widens significantly among women over 65, where Harris leads 63% to 28%. This has led to speculation about a “hidden Harris” voter base—potentially indicative of a broader trend in the Midwest that could challenge Trump’s dominance in upcoming elections.
The Daily Mail reports:
A 21-point swing toward Harris, in a decidedly Republican state, would certainly be cause for concern for the Trump campaign – especially since the findings highlighted a glaring vulnerability for the former president – his support among women.
These findings were seen as evidence of a ‘hidden Harris’ voter in the 2024 electorate that have so far flown under the radar – and are now poised to upend the race, because the sentiments of Iowans are often shared by others in the region.
Selzer ‘weights’ for age, gender and voting district, but not for party registration. That’s not totally unusual – and it has delivered accurate results in the past. But in a state which has seen a surge in Republican registration in recent years, like Iowa, questions must be raised about the poll’s results.
The polling results also highlight a concerning vulnerability for Trump: his image among women. A national poll from DailyMail.com echoed these sentiments, revealing that many women perceive Trump as “corrupt,” while Harris is viewed as “strong.” This shift in perception may be crucial, particularly as reports indicate that independent and undecided voters are increasingly consolidating behind the Vice President.
Selzer’s polling approach, which weights results by age, gender, and voting district but not by party registration, may not account for Iowa’s recent Republican registration surge. This factor complicates interpretations of her findings and suggests that the demographics of respondents could significantly skew results.
While Selzer is generally thought of as a reliable pollster, readers should note that the same day, Emerson College Polling — with equal reliability credentials — released a poll showing Trump winning the state.
The Daily Mail continues:
This survey of 800 likely Iowa voters found 53 percent supported Trump and 43 percent backed Harris – and that the former president carried a majority among both genders.
#NEW FINAL IOWA poll
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 4, 2024
🔴 Trump: 52% (+8)
🔵 Harris: 44%@SocalStrategies | 11/2-3 | N=435LV
#NEW FINAL IOWA poll
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 4, 2024
🔴 Trump: 52% (+8)
🔵 Harris: 44%@SocalStrategies | 11/2-3 | N=435LV
Harris’s potential for success in Iowa may not translate easily to other Midwestern states like Michigan and Wisconsin, which have different demographic compositions. A focus group in Detroit highlighted a notable trend: despite Harris’s overall support among Black and Asian voters, Trump is making inroads within these communities, indicating a potential shift in voting patterns since 2020.
