Tuesday, April 30, 2024

Election Prognosticator Shifts Arizona Senate Race

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Republicans won't be happy about this…

A well-known elections handicapper has shifted Arizona‘s Senate election from “toss-up” to “leans Democratic,” dealing a concerning blow to Republicans.

Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia's Center for said in a release Wednesday that it moved its rating toward Democrats because of the “increased importance” of rights following the recent court decision. (RELATED: Arizona Supreme Court Revives 160-Year-Old Abortion Ban)

Sabato's Crystal Ball said it now sees Democrats as a slight favorite to win the seat. More fuel was added to the ongoing national debate over abortion rights following the overturning of Roe v. Wade when the last week upheld an 1864 state law that makes abortion illegal except to save the life of the mother.

Ruben Gallego is not facing any opposition for the Democrat nomination for the seat being vacated by Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.), who is not running for reelection. 

Gallego and Lake, along with several other politicians from both parties, issued statements opposing the ruling after it was handed down. (RELATED: Kari Lake Is Not Happy About Arizona's Abortion Ban: Report)

“In addition to covering the state of Arizona as a fair and honest journalist for 27 years, I have traveled to every corner of this state on the campaign trail. I speak to more Arizonans than anyone and it is abundantly clear that the pre-statehood law is out of step with Arizonans,” a statement from Lake read. “I am the only woman and mother in this race. I understand the fear, anxiety and joy of pregnancy and motherhood. I wholeheartedly agree with President — this is a very personal issue that should be determined by each individual state and her people. I oppose today's ruling, and am calling on Katie Hobbs and the State Legislature to come up with an immediate common sense solution that Arizonans can support.”

The rating also changed because of Gallego having a stronger fundraising quarter over the first three months of the year, hauling in $7.5 million. 

The release said the rating does improve Democrats' chances for winning the Senate, but Republicans will still have an easier path with the map of seats up for election this year.

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Nancy Jackson
Nancy Jackson
Nancy grew up in the South where her passion for politics first began. After getting her BA in journalism from Ole Miss she became an arts and culture writer for Athens Magazine where she enjoyed reporting on the eclectic music and art scene in Athens, GA. However, her desire to report on issues and policies impacting everyday Americans won out and she packed her bags for Washington, DC. Now, she splits her time between the Nation’s Capital and Philadelphia where she covers the fast-paced environment of politics, business, and news. In her off time, you can find Nancy exploring museums or enjoying brunch with friends.

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