Mamdani’s Massive Lead Shrinks A Week Out From Election

Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani’s once-commanding lead in the New York City mayoral race has narrowed significantly, according to a new Suffolk University poll — signaling a tightening contest just over a week before voters head to the polls on November 4.

The survey shows Mamdani leading with 43.8% support among likely voters, compared to 33.6% for independent candidate and former Democratic Governor Andrew Cuomo, and 10.8% for Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa. About 7.2% of respondents remain undecided.

That margin marks a dramatic shift from mid-September, when Mamdani held a 20-point advantage over Cuomo, 45.0% to 25.2%, with Sliwa polling at 8.6%. The latest figures suggest Cuomo has cut Mamdani’s lead in half in just a month.

Cuomo Gains Among Key Demographics

According to Suffolk University’s analysis, Cuomo’s rebound stems largely from surging support among Hispanic and independent voters. In September, Mamdani led Cuomo by 30 points among Hispanic voters. By October, that gap had flipped — with Cuomo holding a narrow one-point edge.

The former governor also made significant strides with independents, moving from an 18-point deficit last month to a 10-point lead in the most recent poll.

Cuomo, who lost the Democratic nomination to Mamdani in June, remains a registered Democrat and has positioned himself as a centrist alternative to what he calls “extremist politics” on both sides. His campaign has emphasized safety, affordability, and managerial competence — themes that appear to be resonating with moderate voters uneasy about Mamdani’s brand of left-wing populism.

Voters Motivated “For Mamdani,” Not “Against Cuomo”

Interestingly, Suffolk’s data suggests Mamdani’s supporters are more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo’s are about theirs. Nearly 80% of Mamdani voters said they were voting for the socialist candidate, not against Cuomo. By contrast, only 40% of Cuomo’s voters said their vote was primarily for the former governor, while roughly the same number said it was against Mamdani.

That enthusiasm gap could prove pivotal in an off-year election expected to hinge on turnout.

Endorsements and Controversies

Mamdani’s campaign has faced renewed scrutiny in recent weeks over his associations and Jihadist links. On October 17, Mamdani posted a photo on X (formerly Twitter) of himself with Imam Siraj Wahhaj, who, though never charged, was once identified by law enforcement as a potential conspirator in the 1993 World Trade Center bombing.

After months of avoiding the question, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) endorsed Mamdani on Friday in a written statement. He praised Mamdani’s focus on affordability and unity but framed the endorsement as a stand against President Donald Trump, calling him an “existential threat” to democracy.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has not yet endorsed Mamdani. Both Schumer and Jeffries represent New York City in Congress.

Meanwhile, former Mayor Eric Adams, who ended his own independent bid in September, threw his support behind Cuomo last week — one day before Jeffries’ endorsement of Mamdani.

A Volatile Closing Stretch

Mamdani’s campaign, once viewed as nearly unstoppable, now faces a late surge from Cuomo that could upend expectations. His critics have painted him as too radical for New York, while his supporters argue his progressive platform — centered on housing, transit, and wealth redistribution — offers the bold vision the city needs.

Cuomo, by contrast, has leaned heavily on his record as governor and his experience steering New York through crises, portraying himself as a steady hand in a turbulent time.

The Suffolk University poll surveyed 500 likely voters across all five boroughs between October 23 and 26, using live telephone interviews conducted in English and Spanish. The poll’s margin of error is ±4.4 percentage points.

With just days left before early voting closes, both campaigns are now racing to solidify their bases — and win over a small but decisive bloc of undecided voters who could determine the future direction of America’s largest city.

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