Is the latest survey from a nationally recognized leader in public opinion research an outlier or a harbinger of things to come?
Despite most polls showing former President Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden in a competitive rematch, the latest from Quinnipiac University shows Biden with a six percentage point lead, 50 to 44%, among registered voters.
The survey is Quinnipiac’s first since the E. Jean Carroll defamation trial. When broken down further, the results show Biden leading Trump by 52 to 40% among independents and by 58 to 36% among women.
Quinnipiac’s last survey was in December, with Biden leading by one point, within its margin of error. Biden’s advantage with women was significantly smaller as well, 53 to 41%.
“The gender demographic tells a story to keep an eye on. Propelled by female voters in just the past few weeks, the head-to-head tie with Trump morphs into a modest lead for Biden,” Quinnipiac Polling Analyst Tim Malloy remarked.
Politico continues:
The numbers were relatively unchanged for men — 53 percent of men said they’d vote for Trump and 42 percent chose Biden in the latest poll, compared to 51 percent for Biden and 41 percent for Trump in December.
It’s a different story for former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who trails far behind Trump in the Republican primary. The poll found Haley would do better than Trump in a general election, with 47 percent of respondents supporting Haley and 42 percent supporting Biden.
Haley’s support comes largely from independents, with 53 percent saying they’d vote for her. Another 37 percent would back Biden. In the same poll, 52 percent of independents said they’d support Biden over Trump, who’d have the support of 40 percent of respondents.
“In a head-to-head matchup against Biden, Haley outperforms Trump, thanks to independents,” Malloy said. “Add third party candidates to the mix and her numbers slip in part because of her weakness among Republicans.”
Quinnipiac collected responses from 1,650 self-identified registered voters nationwide between Jan. 25 and 29. Its margin of error is ±2.4 percentage points.
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