A notable change…
A prominent election prognosticator shifted its prediction for the Montana Senate election towards Republicans as incumbent Democrat Senator Jon Tester appears to stumble in polls.
The battle between Tester and Republican Senate candidate Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL, was shifted from a “toss up” to “leans Republican” by Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics on Friday, with less than nine weeks until the election.
The rating change followed the Thursday release of a new AARP poll showing Sheehy with a six-point 51%-45% advantage over Tester in a two-way race. In an expanded field, Sheehy still defeated Tester 49%-41%.
“Beyond the polling, history and recent trends are just not on Tester’s side, as we have mentioned previously,” wrote managing editor Kyle Kondik. “He is one of a relatively small number of partisan outliers in either chamber of Congress, holding a Senate seat that the other party won by 16 points in the most recent presidential election.”
“Perhaps ticket-splitting returns in force this year — if it did, Tester could still survive. But the longer-term trend is clearly toward less ticket-splitting,” he said.
Montanans first elected Tester to the Senate in 2006. Despite the state traditionally voting Republican Tester has successfully won reelection twice.
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Victory
“…incumbent Democrat Senator Tim Sheehy”….and “…Republican Senate candidate Tim Sheehy…”! He CAN’T be both! This short story is very confusing and conflicts itself all over the place!