As President-elect Donald Trump prepares his impressive return to the White House, he has a full plate of critical issues to face, but at the top of the list must be the existential China threat.
The People’s Republic of China (PRC), led by the Communist Party of China (CCP) and its autocratic leader, Xi Jinping, now possesses the world’s largest navy, coast guard and army, along with the world’s third-largest air force.
And these all keep growing, both in size and technological sophistication. Meanwhile, China’s aggressiveness and threatening behavior in the South China Sea continues and increases unabated.
Especially worrisome are Xi’s stated plans to absorb Taiwan, by force if needed, likely within the next Trump term, and as early as 2027. Not to mention its mushrooming strategic nuclear capabilities, expected to reach parity with the U.S. by the early 2030s.
All this to push America out of the Indo-Pacific in the short term, and eventually to replace the U.S. as the world’s foremost superpower.
China is not a “pacing challenge” as the Pentagon meekly calls it. Nor is it a competitor, it is a deadly rival and global enemy hellbent on our defeat.
Confronting China will thus be a key challenge for the new administration.
Fortunately, a new 384-page anthology of 11 substantive essays from seasoned practitioners and defense experts, edited by Trump’s former Acting Undersecretary of Defense for Policy (James Anderson) and his Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy (Daniel Green), provides a solid blueprint for Trump to win the “competition” with China.
As the densely packed book Confronting China: US Defense Policy in an Era of Great Power Competition notes:
China’s pursuit of global hegemony reflects a patient yet determined effort to reshape the international order in its favor. Deterring Chinese aggression and winning the peace necessitates an integrated approach that draws upon all instruments of US national power.
Confronting China provides that detailed integrated approach in one source.
The book’s thesis can be summarized by this passage in the introductory chapter:
Strengthening the United States’ ability to confront China where and when necessary, involves. making trade-offs and managing risk. The ability of leaders to make hard choices-and drive their implementation in a timely manner is essential for strategic success. The business-as-usual approach vis-à-vis China will not suffice. Without major course corrections, the United States’ ability to project power in the Indo-Pacific theater and prevail in conflict will weaken. This will undermine deterrence and cast doubt on the credibility of US bilateral treaty commitments. A more assertive, forward-leaning approach is required.
The eleven well-researched and written chapters, and introduction, provide a wide-ranging analysis of the multifaceted China threat, with a particular emphasis on how to counter Beijing in the Indo-Pacific, Middle East, South America and Africa. One chapter evaluates the Deterrence Implications of a Sino-Russian Entente.
This is increasingly critical as Moscow and Beijing collaborate ever more closely.
A couple of essays focus on how America’s alliances and partnerships should be leveraged to face this global threat.
But it doesn’t only cover critical regional issues. The book also takes a deep look at two key crucial new functional areas: Confronting China in Cyberspace and Understanding and Countering the CCP’s Mission to Conquer Space.
Most importantly, editor Daniel Green looks at Strategy: Preparing for Great Power War. Related to that is the chapter Numbers matter: Weapons, US Production Capacity and Deterring China.
In Green’s chapter, he notes that U.S. defense doctrine of integrated deterrence against China is silent on what happens if deterrence fails.
Green argues that the U.S. needs to articulate a coherent war-winning strategy. He recommends a four-pronged approach: (1) preparing for Great Power War, (2) building a resilient homeland for sustained conflict, (3) rolling back global PRC influence and (4) preparing for a post-Xi China.
In his introduction, Anderson provides a snapshot of China’s strengths and weaknesses, as well as its pursuit of global hegemony. He also provides a solid overview of the main regional and functional topics covered in more depth in the rest of the volume.
He also concludes that: “To deter Chinese aggression over the long haul, the United States must enhance its military capabilities, bolster its network of allies, and clearly articulate its intentions to friends and foes alike.”
And he adds correctly: “this volume provides many valuable recommendations along these lines.”
Anderson also told me that he believes the “US needs to do things differently to prevail in its systemic rivalry with China over the long-haul.”
He added: “It is not enough to merely ‘compete’ with China. Where and when appropriate, the US must confront China.”
Ultimately, Anderson concluded, “A more robust defense policy along these lines will help restore and strengthen deterrence, thus making conflict with China less likely.”
Let’s hope that the new Trump team will take the more forceful approach outlined in this book so we can avoid war with China. And if deterrence fails, emerge victorious.
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Well, China is losing its man in the White House.
China doesn’t need Biden and they showed it with that brazen security breach last month.