In a historic political shift, Germany’s anti-mass migration Alternative for Germany (AfD) has topped a national poll for the first time since the party’s founding in 2013, overtaking the once-dominant Christian Democratic Union (CDU) amid growing frustration over the incoming government’s policy reversals and coalition choices.
According to a new Ipsos survey, 25% of the German public now support the populist AfD — a three-point increase over the previous month. In contrast, the CDU/CSU “Union,” led by incoming Chancellor Friedrich Merz, has seen its support drop by five points to 24%. The Social Democrats (SPD), now a junior partner in Merz’s new coalition government, continue to languish with 15% support, down from the 16.8% they garnered during the February elections.
AfD co-leader Alice Weidel celebrated the news, declaring: “For the first time in the AfD’s short history, we are the strongest party in Germany. Thank you for your tremendous trust – political change will come!”
Despite its growing popularity and a strong second-place finish in the last federal election, the AfD remains politically isolated due to the cordon sanitaire — an unofficial agreement among Germany’s establishment parties to refuse any cooperation with the AfD. Merz has doubled down on this position, opting to form a government with the left-leaning SPD instead.
To solidify his coalition with the SPD, Merz has abandoned several core campaign pledges, leading to criticism from both his base and the broader public. Key among these reversals are:
- Dropping fiscal conservatism in favor of a trillion-euro spending plan focused on defense, infrastructure, and green energy initiatives.
- Weakening border protections and naturalization laws, making significant concessions to the SPD on immigration — a pivotal issue that helped propel the CDU to electoral victory earlier this year.
These policy shifts have rattled public confidence. A recent NTV/RTL trend barometer found that only 32% of Germans believe Merz will be a good chancellor — down from 40% immediately after the election. Meanwhile, 60% of respondents said they do not have confidence in his leadership, signaling a sharp decline in his political capital just weeks before officially taking office.
The AfD’s rapid ascent in the polls may be a bellwether for more significant changes ahead. With the CDU under pressure and the coalition already on shaky footing, observers suggest the AfD could make further gains if the government fails to deliver on core issues such as immigration control and economic revitalization.
In a blunt statement, the EU-US Forum think tank summarized the sentiment: “After getting power, the CDU abandoned the very promises that got them elected. Now, the AfD is leading in Germany for the first time ever — and it’s no coincidence. The people want their country back.“
The current political climate suggests that the party’s outsider status may be shifting — and that the establishment’s firewall strategy could be weakening under the weight of public dissatisfaction.
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Thank you, Seijah for this article. As a former German, now legal American, it is very interesting to me. I see parallels in the news in Germany, as in the USA. The AfD is pushed in the “News” as “Far Right” & compare them almost to the Nazies. Kicking & screaming when a group dares to think differently! Just like the Demo/Commicrats in the USA!