Russia’s Wagner Group – Dangerously Effective or Ruthlessly Impotent?

ANALYSIS – The Wagner Group, Vladimir Putin’s ruthless but unofficial private mercenary army, deployed for years in Africa with mixed results, is again raising concerns in the West.

I have written about them here, here and here.

Most recently, it has deployed to Ukraine to stiffen the resolve of the less than effective regular Russian army troops and to also provide ‘shock troops’ for more demanding missions.

The mercenary group closely tied to the Kremlin insists it is simply a PMC (Private Military Company) doing legal military support work for its clients, which includes the Russian military and other states.

In reality, it is an ‘off-book’ private military force used directly by Moscow to do the dirtiest of its dirty work worldwide.

This includes extrajudicial killings and the stealing of natural resources.

Founded and run by Putin’s hardline ally, and former ‘chef,’ Yevgeny Prigozhin, much of Wagner’s fearsome reputation relies on its adept public relations.

They are great at taking credit for victories won primarily by regular armed forces and equally adept at avoiding blame for their defeats.

But how are they doing now in Ukraine?

Some reports show them faring fairly well against NATO armed and trained Ukrainian forces, other reports show only their brutality and ineptness.

Dr. Rubin Michael Rubin calls them a “Paper Tiger” whose reputation for ruthless competence is wholly undeserved.

Much of this negative assessment is based on the group’s messy results in Africa, especially when deployed as light infantry or special operators without heavy equipment against well-armed regular forces.

But should they be dismissed so easily now?

Patrick Tucker at Defense One writes:

[Wagner] is making “incremental gains” in Ukraine’s Bakhmut region, a senior White House official told reporters Wednesday. But that’s in large part because of Prigozhin’s cavalier attitude toward his soldiers’ lives.

“It’s clear that Russia’s military, it took a backseat to the Wagner forces and then they began attacking Bakhmut in late May,” the official said. Since then, he said, the mercenary group’s forces have made small gains—but they have come at a very high cost in terms of casualties, the official emphasized.

The makeup of the mercenary group is likely the reason leaders are not bothered by the casualties, the official said. “We believe…he’s dedicated tens of thousands of mostly convicts to this effort. And we believe that 90% of the casualties that he has suffered have been, in fact, convicts. So they have…basically put a lot of effort into Bakhmut, and the Ukrainians are still fighting bravely for it.”

Prigozhin “has been more willing to be more aggressive with Russian convicts than the Russian military has been willing to be with their own soldiers,” said the official. 

But there is a lot more to the Wagner picture. They are learning and growing greatly in size and capability. And their leader is becoming an even more powerful player in the Russian security apparatus.

A foreign military advisor who frequently collaborates with the U.S. government told Defense One the group’s evolving role hews closely to that of the Russian military. “Wagner’s acquisition of more advanced equipment such as tanks and fixed-wing aircraft indicates that Wagner is evolving from the [special operations forces]-focused organization it was in Syria and Africa and vying to become a conventional force with combined arms capabilities. This enables Prigozhin to develop his own independent parallel security base independent of the Kremlin, which supports Prigozhyn’s competition against the Russian MOD and Shoigu.”

Perhaps it is time to take a new look at Wagner, as well as Yevgeny Prigozhin – he may be the new kingmaker in the Kremlin.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.

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