ANALYSIS – Everyone knows that former President Donald Trump is far and away the front-runner in the Republican race for president. Polls show him trouncing every other Republican in the field, including Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
Polls also show him beating Joe Biden in the general election, but not by the huge margin that Biden deserves.
Trump’s growing legal woes, which include multiple federal and state indictments and about 100 different charges, have had little effect on his base support.
In fact, since most Trump supporters – and many other Americans – see these as highly political and trumped up (pun intended), the indictments may have strengthened his GOP support.
Still, it is very early in the primary race, and some argue that Trump has ‘peaked too early’ and is losing his first-mover advantage.
Here’s where Trump stood versus his rivals just before the debate.
Of course, those who make that argument are usually never-Trumpers or DeSantis supporters.
Brandon Weichert, a former congressional staffer turned political writer and commentator, argues in 19FortyFive that Trump’s peak came just before the first GOP debate.
While many thought Trump’s move to skip the debates and instead sit down for a softball interview with Tucker Carlson on X (formerly known as Twitter) was a good idea, it may have eroded some of his support.
DeSantis and Ramaswamy both enjoyed major bumps in their poll numbers following the debate, while one national poll showed Trump’s numbers have slipped six points since the former president shunned the debate.
Weichert notes that: “Most Republican voters who watched the GOP debate got to see the potential alternatives to Trump, notably Florida’s Governor Ron DeSantis and the biotech billionaire, Vivek Ramaswamy, in a light that was unadulterated by Trump’s infamous bullying and name-calling.”
He added:
A wave of recent polls has been released indicating that, indeed, Trump’s appeal is waning among likely Republican voters. Specifically, a Young Republican National Federation (YRNF) straw poll of some of the Republican Party’s most politically active members now prefer DeSantis over Trump. This gels nicely with the other polls indicating DeSantis’ post-debate bounce in the polls.
More importantly, these data points merge perfectly with other polling data showing that Governor DeSantis is performing well in Iowa, the first state where voting in the Republican Party’s primary will take place in mid-January 2024.
Trump continues to enjoy a lead over DeSantis, Ramaswamy, and the other Republican Party presidential candidates. Yet, that lead is dissipating while DeSantis and Ramaswamy’s share of support is only increasing. In fact, if former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, former Trump Administration Vice-President Mike Pence, former Trump Administration UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, and Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), were not still running, then, Ron DeSantis’ numbers would be far greater than what they are today.
Everyone, including Donald Trump, understand this to be the truth. This explains why Trump, a man who currently enjoys a misleading double-digit lead over his Republican rivals (with DeSantis coming in second behind Trump in most of those polls), continues to hammer away at Ron DeSantis while ignoring all the other challengers to his 2024 White House bid (save for Chris Christie, whom he hates viscerally).
As the race progresses, Weichert rightly argues, the other GOP primary candidates with minimal support will drop out, and most – if not all – of their support will transfer to DeSantis.
If DeSantis wins the Iowa caucus in January, the nation’s first primary state – and polls show he has strong support there – that could change the race dynamics dramatically.
A win in Iowa will give De Santis his breakout moment, shaking up the race. Everyone likes a winner.
Trump knows this, which is why he keeps bashing DeSantis. As Weichert notes: “If Trump’s lead was so great and his victory was so assured, the former president wouldn’t even be bothering with attacking the Florida governor.”
A lot of this makes sense. And even if the analysis is flawed, there is enough there for Team Trump to be concerned about.
This is also why, as I previously wrote about, Team Trump has been so focused on the ground game and delegates in the key primary states.
Whichever way it turns out, Iowa may be the inflection point of the GOP presidential race, and it is still four and a half months away.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.
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I guess Pundits will pun…
So much meaningless jabber already,
and this election is just getting started!
As for Trump’s peak, candidates peak, MOVEMENTS just grow, and grow!
No just a warm up OK for General
There has never been a Pre-Martial Law/Pre Civil War situation like this in ?…American if not Western Civilization voting history so in comparison to what ? does “Peaked to soon”even mean?
This is laughable. DeSantis continues to harm his own campaign, including during the debate, and the idea that all other candidate support would go to DeSantis is a combination of conjecture and wishful thinking. Trump continues to garner more support than all the others combined. Even if the sham “indictments” continue, it will only help him.
“Polls also show him beating Joe Biden in the general election, but not by the huge margin that Biden deserves.”
Not by a huge margin? Who are they kidding? They should stop polling rabid Biden supporters and start polling normal, everyday Americans.
Trump won’t peak as long as Biden remains in office. He’ll simply keep getting stronger and stronger. Never-Trumpers are simply wetting and soiling themselves with all their wishful, delusional day-dreaming.