Will A Chinese Blockade Of Taiwan Spark WWIII?

FRIDAY PDB – A Chinese economic blockade of Taiwan would fail or launch a war. Last month, China launched one of the largest military exercises in recent memory, nearly completely encircling Taiwan with dozens of warships and fighter jets.

This exercise, Joint Sword 2024A, was in response to the inauguration of Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te. Its name suggests it could be merely the first of many such threatening exercises this year, prompting renewed concerns about the threat of a Chinese blockade to Taiwan’s de facto sovereignty.

In recent months, multiple analysts have argued that the main threat facing Taiwan is not the possibility of an overwhelming seaborne invasion of the island, but that of gray zone coercion campaigns or a blockade forcing Taiwan to capitulate to Chinese aggression.

However, as the author notes in a recently released book World on the Brink, an economic blockade in lieu of a full-scale military invasion has a low probability of success and, therefore, Beijing is unlikely to pursue such an operation. 

And, indeed, hasn’t attempted it yet even though it has had the capability to do so for decades. (RELATED: China’s Leader Xi Dangerously ‘Unaware’ Of Some PLA Gray Zone Ops)

In fact, an attempted economic blockade would almost inevitably lead to war or a humiliating defeat by China. Therefore, if Taipei is pinning its hopes for survival on Beijing seeking options short of war, it is making a grave error.

FOR YOUR EYES ONLY – Here’s a roundup of today’s other top defense stories from conservative national security expert PAUL CRESPO.

Not the President’s Daily Brief, but almost as good – PAUL’S DAILY BRIEFING – the PDB:

HONORING 80^th D-DAY ANNIVERSARY

A brief timeline of the Allies’ D-Day invasion of occupied France, June 6, 1944.

VIDEO – We remember the brave service members who fought and died on the beaches of Normandy on D-Day.

Rangers led the way in the D-Day landings 80 years ago. Among the 150,000 soldiers who landed on and fought across the hostile beaches of Normandy on D-Day, June 6, 1944, were 1,000 members of a new, specially trained unit — the U.S. Army Rangers.

D-Day anniversary marked by dwindling number of veterans. As young soldiers, they waded through breaking waves and gunfire to battle the Nazis. Now bent with age, the dwindling number of World War II veterans joined a new generation of leaders on Thursday to honor the dead.

‘The chance to remember’: Soldier dedicates parachute jump on D-Day to honor his grandfather’s legacy. As Command Sgt. Maj. Vern Daley prepared for a parachute jump over Alaska on Thursday with the 11th Airborne Division, he had one addition to his standard Army uniform and equipment — his grandfather’s World War II-era jump wings. (RELATED: 5 Forgotten Facts About D-Day You Need To Know)

NATIONAL SECURITY

US test-fires two unarmed Minuteman III nuclear intercontinental ballistic missiles this week. The Air Force said they were not driven by “current world events.”

As new ICBMs’ cost soars, a few lawmakers are trying to rein it in. A congressional working group on nuclear arms will hold a hearing in July on the budget-busting program.

Austin warns on 80th anniversary of D-Day the world must ‘rally again’ to defend freedom and uphold the international rules-based order.

POLITICS

BS – THIS A JOKE – HE IS A ‘CONVICTED FELON’ IN NAME ONLY – As a convicted felon, Trump isn’t fit to lead America’s military as commander in chief. A felon serving as both leader of the free world and commander in chief would disrupt the U.S. military’s culture and institutional structure.

YES – SPEND MONEY ON VETS NOT ILLEGALS – Nurses rally in DC, call for immediate hiring of VA medical staff. This, to call attention to staff vacancies and what they describe as overwhelming workloads at medical facilities across the country.

Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu is set to address the US Congress on July 24. The prime minister’s visit is setting the stage for what is expected to be a contentious speech at a crucial moment for the ongoing Israel-Hamas war.

Lawmakers chip away at controversial plan to transfer Air National Guard units to Space Force. House members have taken an ax to the Air Force’s controversial proposal to move Air National Guard units with space missions into the Space Force.

US POWER OVERSEAS

Gaza aid pier suffered at least $22 million in damage. The floating structure, which broke apart in rough seas late last month, is being fixed at an Israeli port and could be operational again within days.

Report recommends NATO relocations, reactivation of US 7th Army in Germany. Report adds that the Navy’s European headquarters in Naples should be relocated to the UK as part of a revamped NATO structure.

IRAN THREAT

US seeks to up pressure on Houthis in threat to Yemen-war truce. The US and its allies are raising the stakes in their struggle to curb ship attacks by Houthi militants in the Red Sea by increasingly blocking their revenue sources, a move that could jeopardize a peace deal intended to end an almost decade-long war in Yemen.

RUSSIA THREAT – UKRAINE WAR

US to send $225 million military aid package to Ukraine. The package includes ammunition Kyiv’s forces could use to strike threats inside Russia to defend the city of Kharkiv from a heavy Russian assault. (RELATED: Global Tensions Rise: Russian Warships Bound For Caribbean)

France to supply Mirage 2000-5 jets to Ukraine, train pilots. They will begin training pilots this summer, with the first training completed by the end of the year.

Russia’s white hat hacker bill exposes cyber struggles and strengths. U.S. officials recently warned about pro-Russian hackers targeting poorly secured water systems around the US. This, as Moscow was advancing its own cyber measure: a final-stage bill to legalize white hat hacking.

Russian warships will arrive in Havana next week, say Cuban officials citing ‘friendly relations.’ Four Russian ships, including a nuclear-powered submarine, will arrive in Havana next week. This, as tensions escalate over Western military support for Ukraine in its war with Russia.

Putin makes rare claim on Ukraine war casualties. Vladimir Putin this week gave a rare update on casualty and prisoner-of-war figures from his nation’s war in Ukraine, though his figures contradicted Western estimates.

SHAM – Russian court begins trial of US soldier arrested on theft charges. This, on Thursday at a court in Russia’s far eastern city of Vladivostok on Thursday.

CHINA THREAT

Japan, US, South Korean coast guards hold 1st joint drill off Japan’s coast as China concerns rise. This, as the countries strengthen their maritime ties in response to increased assertiveness by China in pressing its territorial claims.

China’s latest aircraft carrier is much more than a big ship. Along with technical and operational advances, the Fujian represents a response to 19th-century humiliation. (RELATED: China Sinks US Aircraft Carrier With Hypersonic Missile Barrage, In Simulation)

SPACE THREAT

First test of space-based hypersonic tracking sensors ‘within a week.’  Missile Defense Agency Director says he is “absolutely” trying to speed development of the Glide Phase Interceptor, but that any changes must keep the program “viable.”

INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

What to know about Russia’s growing footprint in Africa. Russia’s top diplomat pledged help and military assistance while on a whirlwind tour of several countries in Africa’s sub-Saharan region of Sahel this week, as Moscow seeks to grow its influence in the restive, mineral-rich section of the continent.

Finnish president sees no urgency for permanently stationing NATO troops. Russia-adjacent NATO member Finland has no plans to invite U.S. or other alliance troops to be stationed in the country permanently.

MORE RIGHT! – European Parliament elections 2024: How far right will the EU shift? A strong performance by the far right would probably consolidate the E.U.’s increasingly conservative position on migration and thwart efforts to push ahead on E.U. climate goals. A very strong showing could temper support for Ukraine. It could also embarrass mainstream parties and further weaken their chances in national and regional elections.

US MILITARY

Space Force telescope proposal on Hawaii volcano meets Maui opposition. Local officials Wednesday voted to oppose a U.S. military proposal to build new telescopes on the summit of Haleakala volcano, the latest observatory project to meet objection in the islands.

Allman takes reins as first Navy SEAL commandant at Naval Academy.

Good lord, the head of US 2nd Fleet is a PT stud. Pullups are hard, and pullups are cruel.

US Air Force says it’s on verge of rapid electronic warfare updates. It is “very close” to being able to rapidly update electronic warfare systems with fresh battlefield data in a matter of hours.

END of PDB

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.

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