Signaling trouble for Democrats nationwide…
A recent poll out of New Jersey has delivered a sobering message for Democrats: former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in a state that hasn't backed a Republican presidential candidate since George H.W. Bush in 1988.
Republican Resurgence in the Garden State
New Jersey, long considered a Democratic stronghold, last saw a Republican U.S. senator in Clifford Case, whose tenure ended in 1979. Despite nationwide GOP dominance in the 1980s, the state has firmly supported Democratic candidates at the federal level for over three decades. (RELATED: You Won't Believe What This New Jersey School District Is Doing Behind Parents' Backs…)
The Poll and Its Implications
According to The New Jersey Globe, the poll – conducted before Joe Biden's debate stumble – suggests a significant shift:
There's a new poll in the New Jersey Senate race that puts Republican Curtis Bashaw in striking distance of winning a three-way contest against Democrat Andy Kim and independent Bob Menendez, the incumbent.
The poll has Kim leading Bashaw by six points, 39%-33%, with 3% for Menendez and 25% of likely New Jersey voters still undecided.
The poll was conducted by co/efficient, a newish, little-known independent survey firm in Kansas City with a one-star in 538's pollster ratings. The pollster, Ryan Munce, appears to be Republican- leaning.
The same poll shows Donald Trump and Joe Biden in a statistical dead heat in New Jersey; Trump leads, 41%-40%, with 7% for independent Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and other third-party contenders.
The surprising development has Garden State Democrats on edge, as they grapple with deep-seated corruption issues and waning public trust in key figures.
- Corruption Scandals Rock New Jersey Democrats
- Democratic Senator Bob Menendez, once a powerful committee chairman, faces serious bribery charges. Authorities discovered hidden gold bars in his home, allegedly tied to foreign interests.
- Menendez and his wife, Nadine, each face 18 federal counts for allegedly accepting bribes in exchange for influencing U.S. policy to benefit the Egyptian and Qatari governments.
- Political Turmoil and Public Perception
- Recent indictments, including Democratic power broker George Norcross, highlight widespread wrongdoing and legal challenges undermining the state's political establishment.
- In 2009, Chris Christie leveraged his time as the U.S. Attorney for New Jersey, convicting politicians, including the longtime mayor of Newark, to become the Garden State's first GOP governor in nearly a decade.
Key Poll Findings
The poll reveals significant shifts in voter support among key demographics.
- Hispanic Voter Discontent: A notable 60% of New Jersey Hispanics hold an unfavorable view of Senator Menendez.
- Candidate Favorability: Trump holds a 45% favorability rating, while Biden lags with 36%. Governor Phil Murphy (D) faces a challenging 36%-24% favorability rating.
Methodology and Margin of Error
Conducted by co/efficient, the survey collected responses from 810 likely voters via text and landline interviews. The margin of error is +/- 3.42%.
Conclusion
As New Jersey emerges as a potential battleground once more, Democrats face an unexpected battle to retain their grip on this traditionally blue state.
Amid corruption scandals and shifting voter allegiances, the 2024 landscape appears increasingly uncertain for the party. (RELATED: Forget Fox's Poll? New Survey Shows Trump Leads In Key Battlegrounds – Including Minnesota)
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