California Democrats could face an unexpected setback in one of the state’s newly redrawn congressional districts, where early results show the party’s leading candidate sitting narrowly in third place and at risk of missing the general election ballot entirely.
As of early Wednesday morning, Rep. Kevin Kiley, who changed his party registration from Republican to independent earlier this year but continues to caucus with Republicans, was leading the 6th District primary with 27.1% of the vote.
Republican Michael Stansfield was in second place with 21.9%, while Democratic candidate Dr. Richard Pan trailed just behind with 21.4%. Only 558 votes separated Stansfield and Pan with 95% of ballots counted, according to Cook Political Report analyst Dave Wasserman.
Under California’s top-two primary system, all candidates appear on the same ballot regardless of party affiliation, and only the two highest ranking hopefuls advance to the November general election. If the current results hold, Democrats would be shut out of the race despite the district being redrawn as part of a broader effort to improve the party’s congressional position.
The newly configured 6th Congressional District is anchored in the Sacramento area and includes suburbs such as Roseville and Citrus Heights. It carries a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+8, meaning Democrats are expected to perform roughly 8 percentage points better there than their national average.
The results are especially notable because Gov. Gavin Newsom supported last year’s redistricting measure as a way to create additional Democratic pickup opportunities in California’s congressional delegation. The measure was pitched by supporters as a response to Republican-led mid-decade redistricting efforts.
But the early returns suggest Democrats may have diluted their own support in the crowded primary field. Four other Democratic candidates remain in the race, with two of them receiving between 10% and 11% of the vote.
“I’ve really tried to find ways to build bridges and to chart a different course,” Kiley previously told NPR.
Speaking to supporters Tuesday evening after the first results were released, Kiley framed his showing as a potentially historic moment.
“Never before has an independent been elected to Congress from California,” he said. “And we have the first results in the primary, and I would say they are very encouraging.”
The race isn’t over as more than half the ballots still need to be counted. But the early numbers are likely to raise alarm inside the party, particularly because the district was supposed to be part of a larger strategy to counter Republican redistricting gains elsewhere.
If Pan fails to overtake Stansfield, Democrats would be left without a candidate in the November contest.
The race now hinges on remaining ballots, which could still shift the standings in a contest separated by little more than 500 votes.
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