Washington, D.C. – If you expect something to happen, can you honestly claim to be surprised when it does? Like when Donald Trump won the nomination and the presidency in his original run for the White House? Unlike most columnists, I saw Trump's path to victory widening – even after the release of the “Access Hollywood” tape – while Hillary's narrowed. The reason for this I thought then (as now) is that Trump talked about creating jobs and the future of America while Hillary talked increasingly about how unfit Trump was to be president. The former argument, it seemed to me, resonated better with voters where it counted than the latter.
With that in mind, what's in store for us in 2024? Will there be one or more surprises, or will everything end, as most pundits feel they can now comfortably predict, in a rematch between 46 and 45? (RELATED: Should Trump Pardon ‘Large Portion' Of Capitol Rioters?)
Call me an optimist but, with just about 15 months left until the last votes are cast, I'm starting of thinking there are more than a few surprises in store for us all. A Trump/Biden rematch would be predictable. With predictability comes boredom and that leads to voters choosing the candidate they dislike least. After seven-plus years of chaos of assorted types we need an activated electorate that pays attention to the issues and, hopefully, steps into the voting booth or drives by the drop box enthusiastic about their participation in the election.
That's not happening if both parties run campaigns as it has been suggested they would if the last two presidents are again the major party nominees. The attacks on Biden will center on his mismanagement of the economy, foreign affairs, domestic policy, energy policy and everything else that matters. It will be 1980 all over again, with Trump asking voters to consider whether or not they are better off than they were four years ago – knowing the answer for most of them is “No.”
Biden, meanwhile, is trying to pull together the same kind of united front that in 2022 stopped the expected Republican tsunami from washing over the purple and blue states. By pulling Democrats, Republicans and unaffiliated voters together in “a popular front” against “the MAGA people,” the Biden people hope to limit Trump's influence, confining his wins to the solidly red states which do not by themselves possess enough electoral votes to win the presidency.
What if, however, neither man ends up his party's nominee in the general election? What if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. gets 20 or 30% of the vote in Iowa and New Hampshire? Would that be enough to do to Biden what Minnesota Sen. Gene McCarthy did to President Lyndon Johnson in 1968? (RELATED: 1968 Redux: Can ‘Fringe' Candidates Repeat History?)
It might be – and if RFK Jr. doesn't do it, someone else might. California Gov. Gavin Newsom is already running, even if his campaign is “under the radar.” He's not fooling very many people. Then there's Colorado Gov. Jared Polis, who, for various reasons, might be the right man for the times. The number of Democrats who wish Biden wouldn't run again seems about equal to the number of Republicans who wish Trump would hang it up, and is one of the as yet most under-covered stories of the election.
Speaking of Trump, what guarantee is there that his 50-point lead in most polls over the other Republicans in the race for the GOP nomination holds up? His CNN town hall was a tour de force, with the former president at his most disciplined, looking forward and taking questions from an albeit friendly audience with charm and aplomb. How long can he keep that up? No one is betting money the so-called “new Trump” will last the course of the entire campaign – and tired voters generally long for something else. (RELATED: Fox News Hosts Turn On Trump After Recent Tirade Targeting Former Press Sec.)
Then, of course, there's the question of the issues that will matter most in 2024. Candidates who are not Trump or Biden may run on “Bringing us all together,” a slogan usually met with a yawn. This time it might be different as many people seem extremely disappointed Biden has failed to fulfill his promise to unite the nation.
Trump, of course, never made such a promise, but his plan to “Make America Great Again” had a lot to do with reviving the U.S. economy. He did, at least until the COVID-related lockdowns threw almost everyone but the government bureaucrats responsible for spending money out of work.
As a result, spending will be an issue in the next campaign, up there with jobs and the economy. Neither Biden nor Trump has a definitive, convincing plan to rein it in. Neither of them like's to say “No” very much yet, with the total national debt at or close to one year's U.S. GDP, hard choices are going to have to be made. Is either man willing to make them? (RELATED: Debt Ceiling Agreement Exposes Inconvenient Truths For Everyone)
A lot has changed since 2016 and 2020. The men who were right for those times may not be right for now. Then again, they might be – which is why if the 2024 contest does end up in a rematch, more than a few people may still end up being surprised.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.
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OK, I like what you have said. There will be many more surprises in the coming months.
However, I think that everyone has missed the point… what we got in 46 (however he got here) is a disaster. There is no way they will nominate Joe again. He has been a placeholder, bought and paid for by whomever they plan for next.
And it should not be an apeasement by everyone backing Desantis. This dude looks great, talks great, but on his own is not great. If he is allowed to be propped up by the establishment, he will fold like all of the rest. The only way forward for Ron, is to team up with those who wish to see this through.
DJT is the only guy that said what he meant and took action to accomplish what he promised. I do not think that anyone in the field has the ability to weather the storm as DJT has. We only have one more shot at this, let us not waste it.
Follow Trends alone DONT predict outcomes
OK possible outcomes if XYZ done or not done