China-Taiwan Wargame Exposes US Strategic Weakness

PAUL’S DEFENSE BRIEF (PDB) – In August, international experts gathered at Syracuse University to plan China’s invasion of Taiwan. For two days, expert participants abandoned their typical defensive postures and inhabited Beijing’s offensive strategic mindset in a wargame.

They focused on how China might overcome the obstacles that have so far kept it from attacking the island.

This role reversal yielded an uncomfortable insight. The invasion scenarios that dominate U.S. military planning — involving massive amphibious assaults on Taiwan and preemptive strikes on U.S. bases — may fundamentally misread Beijing’s calculus. 

As the wargame revealed, analysts seeking to understand China’s intentions should pay greater attention to plausible alternative military pathways to reunification that involve far less force and far more political calculation.

The game forced participants to confront practical questions Chinese strategists would face when they draft and update their war plans, such as: How much force is enough to compel surrender without triggering U.S. intervention? What surrender terms would Taipei accept? How does Beijing transition from military action to political control of Taiwan to a favorable post-war status quo in the region and beyond?

These types of questions expose a gap in American strategic thinking.

The focus is overwhelmingly on the invasion scenario. They rarely examine the political context that shapes military decisions. This narrow focus produces a dangerous blind spot: the U.S. prepares for the war it can fight or prefers to fight, not the one China expects to win.

FOR YOUR EYES ONLY – Here’s a roundup of today’s other top defense news from conservative national security expert PAUL CRESPO.

Not the President’s Daily Brief, but almost as good – PAUL’S DEFENSE BRIEFING – the PDB:    

HOMELAND SECURITY

As Illinois and Chicago filed suit to block the deployment of the National Guard in Chicago, a judge declined to issue a temporary restraining order, and it was revealed troops are already on their way.

Eswatini received 10 third-country nationals deported from the U.S., it said, adding to an initial group of five deportees it received in July. (RELATED: Mr. Due Process: 20 Judges, Dozens Of Hearings, And Millions In Legal Aid For Kilmar Abrego Garcia)

DEFENSE POLITICS

Trump told sailors not to worry about their paychecks amid the government shutdown, saying he will “always stand for” service members, and pay is “coming.”

The Golden Dome missile-defense project has a lot of money, and contractors have a lot of questions—so many that the Missile Defense Agency has pushed back the deadline to submit proposals for a chunk of its $151 billion pot.

Gulf War illness, a debilitating medical condition linked to military service, has received formal recognition as a legitimate illness after more than three decades of reports about unexplained symptoms developed during duty in the Persian Gulf.

US POWER OVERSEAS

Navy is looking for an U.S. shipbuilder to establish a Singapore-based lead maintenance activity in the Southeast Asian city-state to support the fleet’s regional repair operations by partnering with shipyards across the Indo-Pacific by 2027.  A recent expansion of regional yards cleared to support the Navy’s vessels in the region – includes newly certified yards in India, Sri Lanka, Japan and South Korea.

These are the approximate positions of the U.S. Navy’s deployed carrier strike groups and amphibious ready groups throughout the world as of October 6, 2025.

CHINA THREAT

Confronting China, from the Indian Ocean to the copper belt. Africa is getting more attention from the U.S., but America’s self-inflicted wounds are giving its main rival an edge.

RUSSIA THREAT

Over 100,000 foreign-made components found in the drones and missiles Russia used to attack Ukraine on the night of October 5 (President of Ukraine).

Long-range Ukrainian drones and missiles hit a major Russian ammunition plant, a key oil terminal and an important weapons depot behind the front line, as Kyiv cranked up pressure on Moscow’s military logistics.

Is Russia’s Putin gambling with the safety of Ukraine’s nuclear stations? Vladimir Putin alleged that Ukrainian attacks had destroyed a high-voltage transmission line between the Moscow-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southeastern Ukraine and Kyiv-controlled areas.

A Russian fiber-optic-controlled first-person view (FPV) drone made a precision strike within the city of Kramatorsk for the first time. Though no one was injured, a fiber-optic FPV drone strike on one of the largest cities in the east raised alarms in Ukraine.

NORTH KOREA THREAT

North Korea has unveiled a new hypersonic missile dubbed Hwasong-11Ma, designed to be fired from a 10-wheeled transporter-erector-launcher (TEL) that can carry two of the weapons at once.

MIDDLE EAST THREATS

Israel and Hamas have begun indirect talks in Egypt on a U.S. ceasefire proposal amid cautious optimism that the nearly two-year war in Gaza may be nearing its end, despite deep divisions between the two sides. (RELATED: Trump’s Bold Gaza Peace Plan Wins Israeli Backing)

After two years of war, there is a chance of a deal that will end the killing and destruction in Gaza and return the Israeli hostages, living and dead, to their families.

Lebanon’s army chief briefed the government for the first time on its plan to disarm the terrorist group Hezbollah, while Israel carried out airstrikes in southern and northeastern Lebanon.

Syrian army and the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have reportedly called a truce in two areas of Aleppo city after a member of the Syrian security forces was killed in an SDF attack on a checkpoint in the city.

INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

Bangladesh air force gets nod to spend billions on multirole fighters. Two air forces fly the Chinese-manufactured J-10 fighter – China and Pakistan – but a third nation could soon become an operator of this 4.5-generation jet.

UK is investing in new sensor technology designed to detect and counter laser threats to satellites, protecting assets vital to the economy, national security, and military operations.

Venezuela’s illegitimate leader Nicolás Maduro has asked Pope Leo XIV to help maintain peace in the South American country.

US MILITARY

Navy maintenance crews are stripping their own jets and submarines for spare parts to repair other planes and subs, a government watchdog found.

Navy is looking for automatic target recognition and tracking capabilities — particularly those that can stalk drone swarms or multiple vessels simultaneously — to deploy in operations involving its maritime helicopters.

Navy recently deployed Global Autonomous Reconnaissance Craft (GARC), as well as several other unmanned systems, to train against swarms of enemy drones during two multinational exercises held in the North Atlantic.

Lockheed Martin subsidiary Sikorsky announced today the launch of its Nomad drone fleet, a family of vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) twin-proprotor UAS.

Details remain scant about an unspecified Air Force aircraft, believed to be a drone of some kind, which came down in southern Nevada not far from Area 51 nearly two weeks ago.

A memo circulating on social media that purportedly outlines a new, hardcore ‘combat fitness’ test for the Air Force’s physical fitness policy is not authentic.

END of PDB

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.

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