For any conservative national security professional not directly in the Trump orbit, the last several weeks of nonstop yapping by President Trump and his minions trying to positively spin the ceasefire and memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Iran have been painful and nauseating.
While there are those who can find some political-military merits to the deal, and I will look at their arguments later, most intelligent and fair observers see it as a colossal, long-term, embarrassing defeat. Trump essentially snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
This fiasco may be worse, and produce more long-term damage for America, than Joe Biden’s reckless retreat from Afghanistan. Together these two disasters point to a country that, despite its vaunted military prowess, cannot successfully conclude either a long, low-intensity war, or a short, high-intensity one against a third-world power.
China, in particular, sees a militarily powerful nation, politically unwilling to sacrifice the least bit to achieve its objectives, increasing its belief that in a conflict over Taiwan, the U.S. will back down rather than face any serious casualties or other consequences.
Just the optics of the world’s greatest superpower launching a justified, if poorly explained, massive war on a third-rate nation like Iran (with devastating effect), and then just as quickly rushing to negotiate a ceasefire to deal with what the war should have resolved, is an obvious failure for America.
Instead, it is a victory for little Iran who is seen as negotiating firmly as equals with the superpower that supposedly just destroyed its military.
Just as embarrassing is the constant nonsense spewed by Trump, the White House, senior officials, and a small army of sycophantic minions about how much the Iranians have surrendered and conceded, only to be immediately rebuffed by Iranian statements denying any concessions and instead making more demands.
Recall, at one point Trump called for Iran’s unconditional surrender, then said that this non-deal, conditions-laden MOU was an unconditional surrender for Iran. In fact, it is the opposite, more of a smokescreen for a U.S. surrender.
At the moment I will agree with national security author, Dr. Robert Farley, who writes in 19fortyfive:
The MOU confirms what many have suspected over the last week: the war was an utter failure for the United States and Israel, even given the significant damage inflicted on Iranian military installations.
The US has abandoned the goal of regime change, has agreed to allow Iran’s non-nuclear military programs to proceed unabated, has agreed to restrain Israel in Lebanon, and is offering immediate sanctions relief that will undoubtedly reinvigorate Iran’s economic and military infrastructure.
Worse, Iran has learned that it can close the Strait of Hormuz at will without incurring significant consequences.
In fact, the MOU appears to confirm that Iran has gained leverage over the straight by moving toward jointly controlling the Strait with Oman and charging tolls for passage through this previously free international waterway.
The deal also leaves open the status of Iran’s nuclear weapons plans and its existing stock of nearly weapons grade enriched uranium.
Meanwhile, despite the profound devastation the war has wreaked on Iran’s military capabilities, the promise of complete relaxation of sanctions, $100 billion in frozen assets, and a $300 billion reconstruction slush fund, could place Iran in a far stronger position than the Barack Hussein Obama nuclear deal that Trump has long and justifiably mocked.
But in launching a war this close to midterm elections, Trump grossly miscalculated and was soon convinced that quick retreat sold as victory was his least-worst option. And with this idiotic MOU, he found his off-ramp to this war.
As he sees it, he can now better avert a global economic meltdown while still salvaging the GOP’s chances in the midterms. We can only hope. What will take longer to see are the massive negative geopolitical ramifications for America’s role as a global superpower. Those will become clearer later.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.
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But maybe Trump believes that Iran won’t agree to ( or will ‘agree’ to, but won’t adhere to ) any form of surrender of Iran’s military programs by the government of Iran.
We can logically assume what will happen then. Our military is still there and they are ‘locked and loaded’.
I can be sure that I wouldn’t want to be in Iran if that happens!