Iran-Russia Naval Drills Raise Stakes As US Forces Build Up Nearby

PAUL’S DEFENSE BRIEF (PDB) – As the U.S. flows assets toward the Middle East, including the Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group now reportedly off the Moroccan coast, and USS Abraham Lincoln strike Group already there, Iran, China, and Russia will hold their recurring joint naval training exercise in the Strait of Hormuz.

Moscow and Tehran see the Maritime Security Belt 2026 exercise as particularly relevant in light of current events, and there are reasons for the White House and Pentagon to take note.

Having Russian or Chinese warships in these waters amid a U.S. attack on Iran could have military and political implications planners must address. At the same time, the timing of the still ongoing U.S. buildup and the exercise point to it having more of a messaging effect than an operational one.

Meanwhile, potential military strike on Iran could happen as soon as Saturday, say national security officials. President Trump, who has been putting military pressure on Iran to work out a nuclear deal by sending U.S. warships and fighters to the region, has discussed attack options with advisers.

FOR YOUR EYES ONLY – Here’s a roundup of today’s other top defense news from conservative national security expert PAUL CRESPO.

THE PDB – Not the President’s Daily Briefing, but almost as good – PAUL’S DEFENSE BRIEF:    

NATIONAL SECURITY

Air Force’s troubled Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile program faces significant risks from software delays and an extended reliance on the aging Minuteman III system.

Construction of new silos for the Air Force’s future LGM-35A Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missiles means that security forces charged with defending them will have to update their tactics, techniques, and procedures.

Military power begins with industrial strength. President Trump’s recent call for a $1.5 trillion defense budget as part of a broader effort to modernize and strengthen the nation’s defenses has reignited long-running debates in Washington. The important question is not simply how much we spend but where to invest those dollars to ensure real military readiness.

Jet transports set to serve as “Air Force One” will soon be painted dark red, white, and dark blue as Trump has hinted.

US POWER OVERSEAS

Air Force kicked off one of its biggest exercises, Bamboo Eagle, featuring combined virtual and live training scenarios to test the command-and-control “nervous system” leaders need to operate on a complex joint battlefield spread over vast distances.

Air Force delays F-15EX deliveries to Kadena Air Base, Japan, and continues rotational deployments.

The U.S. is withdrawing all of its roughly 1,000 troops from Syria, bringing an end to a decade-long U.S. military presence that fought the Islamic State.

VENEZUELA CRISIS

The top U.S. military commander for Latin America, and a senior Pentagon official, made an unannounced visit to Venezuela for security talks with interim authorities in Caracas, marking the first U.S. military delegation trip to the country since Venezuelan narco dictator Nicolás Maduro was captured by U.S. forces.

IRAN THREAT

Iran-U.S. nuclear talks may fail due to both nations’ red lines – but that doesn’t make them futile. The latest rounds are going well enough for now. That’s because Iran is using talks as a delay tactic. The U.S. is using them as a cover for a potential attack.

CHINA THREAT

A two-day series of maritime drills by the U.S., Australian, and Philippine navies this week in the South China Sea drew a response from China’s navy with a demonstration patrol of its own.

Formations of thousands of Chinese fishing boats stir worries in Japan. “Huge mobilization” in East China Sea seen as possible maritime militia training.

RUSSIA THREAT/UKRAINE WAR

U.S.-brokered talks between envoys from Moscow and Kyiv over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ended with some progress, but no breakthrough, and with both sides saying talks were “difficult.” This, as war’s fourth anniversary arrives next week.

Russia launched aerial attacks on Ukraine overnight, ahead of the second day of negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow officials in Geneva.

Russia is developing a new balloon-borne system to provide battlefield access to high-speed data communications when its forces are desperate to keep connected. Testing of Barrage-1 balloon comes as Ukrainian troops are taking advantage of Russia’s loss of access to the SpaceX Starlink satellite constellation network.

EUROPEAN DEFENSE BUILDUP

Germany does not want to pursue nuclear weapons of its own but is interested in incorporating French and British nukes in a deterrence arrangement reminiscent of NATO’s U.S.-based nuclear umbrella.

NORTH KOREA THREAT

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un unveiled a large array of nuclear-capable rocket launchers ahead of a rare congress of the ruling Workers’ Party, signaling the next stage of the country’s nuclear weapons program.

SPACE THREATS

Pentagon seeks commercially built GEO spy satellites, plans to select companies to field and operate spacecraft before transferring them to government control within three years.

INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

Turkish warship launches combat drone in the Baltic Sea under cold, windy conditions.

US MILITARY

Army’s Apache attack helicopter AH-64 broke new ground by downing drones by firing 30mm proximity ammunition at them in air-to-air combat during the December exercise in Yuma, Arizona.

The public has ChatGPT, and it’s catching on like wildfire. Air Force wants to give student pilots “IP GPT,” an AI tool built to help them learn the ropes of flying.

Watchdog finds gaps in military response to missing service members. When a service member goes missing, the first hours can determine whether they are found safely — or not at all. Unclear timelines and inconsistent processes across services could delay lifesaving responses.

VA medical examiners are now required to consider the effects of medication that lessen symptoms on a veteran’s health condition when assigning disability rating under the new regulation.

VA has ended a practice that prevented veterans who can’t manage their finances from owning guns; the change will restore constitutional rights to nearly 200,000 former service members.

END of PDB

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