Svalbard: The Other Arctic Island Flashpoint, Part 2

Part two of a two-part analysis, partly based on my recent visit to Svalbard.

Continued from part one.

Just as a look at a polar projection map shows how vital Greenland is to North America, a glance at the map reveals why Svalbard’s location matters to Russia. The Kola Peninsula, key to Russia’s nuclear capabilities, is immediately to Svalbard’s southeast.

Russia’s growing northern fleet is also based north of Murmansk, and the Franz Josef Land archipelago, annexed from Norway by the Soviets in 1926, hosts major Russian military assets and lies about 250 miles to the east and partly to the north of Svalbard.

Russia constructed a new air base on Franz Josef Land in 2021, publicly justifying it to defend their nuclear weapons on the Kola Peninsula.

Russia also uses its base there to threaten the surrounding areas around it, including Svalbard.

As noted by Arctic Today in September 2025:

Russia has significantly strengthened its military presence at the archipelago. The Nagurskoye base today includes a major building complex, an airfield and powerful arms, including the Bastion system, a Monolit-B coastal radar, as well as anti-drone equipment. In a bid to intimidate Norway and its NATO allies, the Russian war ministry emphasizes that the onyx missiles are “almost undetectable” for modern air defense systems and capable of “destroying naval vessels of any size at distances of up to several hundred kilometers.”

… As part of Zapad-2025, Russia this week also conducted mock strikes with its Kinzhal missile over the Barents Sea. Also the coastal missile system Bal has been engaged, according to the Russian armed forces on Telegram.

Launch of missile Uran from coastal missile complex Bal. Video by Russian armed forces. Large areas in the Barents Sea have been sealed off in connection with the training. Several of the areas are in the Norwegian exclusive economic zone. According to Northern Sentry, a Norwegian account on X with focus on the High North, one of the exercise scenarios of Zapad-2025 is an attack of Svalbard and subsequent occupation of the archipelago.

Also, during the Zapad-2025 exercise, according to Arctic Today, a key target in the exercise was an imagined enemy flotilla in the Barents Sea.

The scenario included the landing of Russian troops, weapons, and armored vehicles from the landing ship Aleksandr Otrakovsky, and the destruction of imagined enemy saboteurs that had infiltrated the archipelago.

Meanwhile, there have been growing tensions between Norway and Russia on Svalbard.

In January 2022, one of two key undersea fiber optic cables connecting mainland Norway to Svalbard was damaged in the Greenland Sea. The Svalbard Undersea Cable System is crucial for satellite data. Russian sabotage was suspected, though never proven.

Later, in June 2022, a small crisis also highlighted how Russia could easily escalate a local incident into an excuse for military action.

Norway’s Foreign Ministry denied Russian state-owned coal mining company Arktikugol’s request to open a supply route to Barentsburg, citing sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. Russia responded quickly.

Norway’s actions, the Russians claimed, “violated the provisions” of the Svalbard Treaty of 1920, which grants citizens of all signatory nations, including Russia, equal access to the archipelago’s resources.

“Following Norway’s actions, the sovereignty of this country over Svalbard is a big question from now on,” Russian Senator Andrei Klishas said

Norway’s Foreign Minister denied that Oslo had violated the Svalbard Treaty, saying the shipment “has been stopped on the basis of the sanctions that prohibit Russian road transport companies from transporting goods on Norwegian territory.”

The next month, Norway allowed the goods to be shipped to Barentsburg, relieving the immediate tension.

Still, Russia’s recent rhetoric suggest Svalbard may be a growing target in Moscow’s sights.

In 2023, Russian officials ramped things up and skirted the letter of the law of the 1920 treaty by holding a military-style parade down the main street in Barentsburg, including flying a helicopter overhead.

The blatantly militarized display created a lot of concern in Norway.

But Russia isn’t the only threat to Svalbard. China, now closely allied to Russia, has been showing increasing interest in Svalbard and the High North in general, calling itself a “near-Arctic” power.

The Chosen just reported how the Chinese, who have had a polar research station on the island for 20 years, are aggressively trying to infiltrate Svalbard as well, and how Norway has responded:

In July 2024, controversy arose when cruise tourists from Shanghai and Hong Kong took photos saluting in military uniforms while waving Chinese flags in front of a granite lion statue at a Chinese base within the Svalbard archipelago. Despite repeated orders from Norway, China has not removed the [two] statue[s].

Norway has implemented control measures, including prohibiting foreign sales of private property in Svalbard and denying Chinese students permission to study at local universities on security grounds. It has also restricted voting rights previously allowed to foreign residents, permitting them only if they have resided in mainland Norway for over three years. State Secretary Eivind Vad Petersson stated, “No country grants voting rights to foreigners. The Svalbard Treaty guarantees ‘equal access’ but not ‘equal rights.’”

Meanwhile, members of the U.S. House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party believe the Chinese, who have access to a powerful radar system that monitors space weather and the atmosphere, are performing military research on Svalbard, which is not allowed under the treaty.

According to an online portal, at least three current research projects using data gathered from Svalbard have been shared with the China Research Institute of Radiowave Propagation, a Chinese defense organization.

So, China is now also showing a growing, likely military interest in Svalbard, making it part of the new Cold War occurring in the far north. And potentially the next crisis flashpoint in the Arctic.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.

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