As the “only in D.C.” drama of the debt ceiling negotiations putter along, it’s critical to remember that neither the Republicans nor the Democrats are talking about changes to one of the biggest drivers of U.S. spending: Social Security.
The reason is simple: politics. Major party pols live in mortal fear of doing anything to this massive social program because of the possible Election Day fallout. And, if they are nothing else, the major party pols are career-minded folks who really, really, want to keep their own government paychecks (and eventual government benefits) flowing.
But that doesn’t mean the rest of us have to pretend all is well with Social Security. A recent Government Accountability Office report repeats the warnings of the Social Security trustees about the program’s ability to pay retiree benefits:
Since 2021, costs have exceeded total income (including interest) and are expected to continue exceeding income throughout the Trustees’ 75-year projection period. SSA has drawn on accumulated surpluses in the OASI Trust Fund to make up the difference between cost and income. If this trend continues and no action is taken, the OASI Trust Fund will deplete its reserves and Social Security will be unable to pay full scheduled benefits.
Specifically, using the Social Security Trustees’ middle or “intermediate” set of assumptions, which represents the Trustees’ best estimates of the future course of the population and economy, the OASI Trust Fund reserves are projected to become depleted in 2033. At that point, if no action is taken, program revenue would be sufficient to pay retirees just 77 percent of their scheduled benefits. However, because the Social Security Act does not provide a procedure for paying less than full benefits it is difficult to know how this would unfold.
The operative phrase here is “if no action is taken.”
If the federal government does nothing to alter the Social Security system’s finances, future retirees – and plenty of those currently receiving benefits – will face cuts. If there’s a process for doing so. And if not, then the difference is going to have to come from somewhere – possibly the general budget or more debt.
The larger point, though, is that the political class has an opportunity right now to address these issues as it wrestles with the debt ceiling. But it refuses to because of politics, fear and careerism.
Those three items are a major reason why we’re in our current fiscal mess. And until that changes – and voters are going to have to demand such changes – we will lurch from fiscal crisis to fiscal crisis for years to come. That’s unsustainable, unacceptable and also the most likely outcome of the political theater currently on display in D.C.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.
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From a Republican for whom Social Security is the biggest issue: Norman, you repeatedly warn of the need for changes, but you do not specify what changes need to be made. My manager always told me “When you bring me a problem, bring me options for a solution as well.”. You should do the same. My options are: 1. Allow migrants in on work permits as long as jobs are available (paying into Social Security, but not eligible to receive benefits from the program). 2. Have young [22-40] income earners pay more, while being allowed to put 20% of it into options they choose. 3. Claw back funds used by politicians for decades in their states for stupid government spending benefiting their political careers to replenish the Fund. There. 3 possible solutions that do not screw those who have been taxed throughout their working lives ostensibly for a safe retirement benefit. You can probably think of at least one additional solution, can’t you?
S.S. could easily be saved by raising the payroll tax cap for the rich.
this story was a waist of time SSA will fail in 11 year. The present issues as said in 2021 started with the Vaccine. More ppl dropped out of the work force because they were injured from the jab
Oh the RINOs right