Monday, May 13, 2024

What Went Wrong Tuesday? A Post-Election Autopsy

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Washington, D.C. – The results of Tuesday's election were, in a word, odd. Almost no one, except perhaps for those who were cheering the Democrats on to a big win, conceded in advance of the counting that such an outcome was possible.

A book can, indeed probably will be written about all the things that went wrong for the GOP and what went right for the Democrats. In the simplest scenario, President Joe 's constant appeals to his party's base to come home and stop Republican “extremists” from seizing power worked.

Looking at the map, particularly where the U.S. House of Representatives is concerned, the results fall just inside the category of what could be expected. That the GOP would take over was hardly in doubt. The Democrats' margin going into the election was just a handful of seats. Those who predicted a wave, including yours truly, failed to consider several things that proved to be decisive.

One of them is that, while demographics may not be destiny as some forecasters believe, the way lines are drawn matters. The GOP was able to capitalize on the addition of seats in states like and Florida to create more Republican-leaning seats while the Democrats were able to use the loss of a seat in Illinois to bolster their ranks in that state's delegation significantly.

That made a difference on November 8 as it reduced the number of seats that actually could be considered to be in contention. The outcome of those races, while not exactly pre-ordained, were nonetheless highly predictable even among the seats considered toss-ups.

Most of the heavily contested races occurred in places that lean Democrat. Rhode Island's 2nd Congressional District and 's 1st are both examples of seats where the GOP hoped the Democrat's failure to address the ailing in a competent manner coupled with a “wave” meant they could be won, making the Republican majority in the House bigger than the maps gave them the right to expect.

The reasons they didn't, at least as far as races for the House of Representatives go, are complicated and nuanced, involving everything from the quality of the campaigns and the individual candidates to the role played by former President Donald J. Trump and by the mainstream which, once again, seemed to favor one side over the other.

The Democrats' decision to close on and the alleged threat to democracy posed by the so-called MAGA Republicans in not one but two Biden speeches seemed puzzling at the time. This was not, most analysts believed, an effective way to stop the “red wave” most projected would wash over the nation.

In truth, it turned out to be a masterstroke, pulling back into the fold disaffected Democrats unhappy with the way things have been going for the past two years. They, like everyone else, have suffered greatly from Biden policies that have driven up the price of food, rent and fuel. Nonetheless, with many first-time GOP candidates for the House and other offices failing to offer solutions to the pocketbook problems most Americans are dealing with, the appeal to fear made by the president proved to be an effective way to prevent his party from being swept out of office in a landslide.

It was our misfortune that, from state to state, so many Republican candidates had no answer for this. They expected, probably due to their lack of experience campaigning for office, that it was enough to denounce Biden and the radical fringe that dominates his party to have been enough. It wasn't – as the vote totals across the country show.

There are things like the proliferation of “drag queen story times” across the country and the insistence that transitioning teens be allowed to use the locker rooms reserved for the gender into which they were not born that has many voters disturbed. Culturally, these issues are important. Conducting what amount to experiments on the nation's children to shape their attitudes about race and gender and sex which many parents disapprove of has made a difference when it comes to the composition of local school boards. But most voters don't see how much of that has anything to do with who should be in .

The results of the 2022 election could be taken as an indication “It's the economy, stupid” is no longer an operational maxim in American . That's probably a bridge or two too far, at least as of now. Serious questions have been raised since the Occupy Wall Street movement kicked off several years ago raised regarding the operation of a market-based economy that, for the moment, only the proponents of change have been able to answer. By presuming the public's concern about the lack of growth in the economy, the rapid increase in spending and the re-regulation of the business sector did not need to be addressed because the electorate presumed – as many showed – the GOP would do a better job on those issues than the Democrats, the Republicans helped the opposition prevent a smashing victory at an important time in the nation's history.

Another failure, which may in time be regarded as the most important of many in the 2022 campaign, was the GOP's failure to go on offense against the lockdown governors who shuttered their state's schools and economies during the pandemic. The decision to do so – and in blue states to keep things closed well beyond the point the red states began to reopen – should have been a major issue. Again, it wasn't, and for mystifying reasons.

Most all the science says the lockdowns did little if any good. Instead, they did significant harm to the economy, to child development and to the long-term of the American people who, because they were scared away from going to the hospital or the doctor, are now suffering from potentially fatal diseases in advanced stages. The shutdowns deprived them of the chance for life-saving early detection. Such a thing must never be allowed to happen again yet because the issue never took center stage because none of the opposition candidates pushed it there, we may again find ourselves adrift at the mercy of politicians taking advice from public health professionals engaged in groupthink rather than the search for a creative solution to an exploding crisis.

The GOP has considerable soul-searching to do over the next weeks, months and years. Trump's toxicity, many analysts are now saying, continues rather than dissipates. The former president, probably without realizing it is, by keeping his focus on the past is ignoring the wishes of an electorate that wants to move forward. They want the back of inflation broken. They want domestic energy production to increase so that prices will come down. They want a return to economic and social “normalcy,” to borrow a phrase from another former U.S. president rather than a continuation of the politics of sharp elbows. They want leaders who will fight for them, not for themselves.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.

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Peter Roff
Peter Roff
Peter Roff is a longtime political columnist currently affiliated with several Washington, D.C.-based public policy organizations. You can reach him by email at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @TheRoffDraft.

41 COMMENTS

  1. Stefanik may have just met her Waterloo by deciding to hang her credibility to Trumps coattails. IF the Republican Party is brain dead enough to even THINK about giving the nomination to Trump, Stefanik will be history, along with Trump….and it may also be the end of the Republican party. Such a result will serve us right for NOT learning from past failures.

    • I am grateful for what President Trump did for our country,
      but I think Ron DeSantis has a better chance if winning and
      that’s who I support.

        • Amen to that! He ran an open administration and would actually talk TO people and not AT them. Also, he spoke real English and not that Beltway doubletalk we now hear.

        • We’re all entitled to our own thoughts but I feel Trump and DeSantis would make a good team. Trum as president, DeSantis as vice president then in another four years DeSantis as president. Between them this country might hopefully get back on the right track

      • Though I agree with you there’s only one thing about DeSantis that worries me. He’s a professional politician. That’s something we really don’t need in government. We need people who’ve lived and worked in the real world and know what it’s actually like to compete.

        • True but that is a whole less risky than having ANY other Democrat in office. DeSantis has shown that he really does care for the welfare of his constituents, politician or not.

    • You are a Dem hoping you are listened to and cause descension. Trump is still gold. No one did as much as he did for our country.

      • If he is so golden why did he lose in 2022? How many of his reforms stuck? The answer is ZERO. He is seen by too many as mean, spiteful, and Narcissistic.

        • Your TDS is showing. NEWS FLASH!!!- Trump was NOT on the 2022 ballot, in case you failed to notice, in spite of the fact that all of your leftist Democrat bootlickers in the MSM kept talking about Donald.

    • Latest polls show a sharp reversal—Republicans and Independents now prefer DeSantis as the 2024 nominee for the presidency over Trump by a wide and increasing margin. Trump led in the same poll a month ago but is quickly losing support. Making up names for DeSantis reminds voters that Trump’s mouth is still his own worst enemy. I hope Trump fades into obscurity in the coming months. Rightly or wrongly, he has made a lot of enemies, and DeSantis is much more liked by the majority of voters. We need DeSantis in 2024 to guarantee a win for those of us who still love our country. I expect a number of Forever Trumpers will vote against DeSantis out of spite, but he will still win..

  2. WHAT WENT WRONG officially commenced in 1787 when the constitutional framers usurped Yahweh’s exclusive election authority (per Deuteronomy 17:15), whereby they turned election “discretion” over to We the People, the majority of whom are in the broad way leading to destruction, per Christ in Matthew 5:13.

    For more, see blog article “Constitutional Elections: Dining at the ‘Devil’s Table'” at Bible versus Constitution dot org. Search title on our Blog.

    See also Chapter 5 “Article 2: Executive Usurpation” of free online book “Bible Law vs. the United States Constitution: The Christian Perspective.” Click on the top entry on our Online Book page and scroll down to Chapter 5. Then scroll down to heading “Elections.”

  3. As a “former” Trump supporter I can honestly say that Trump has caused the current problems for the Republican Party with his endless rants and attacks against the likes of DeSantis and Youngkin, among others. We also have been saddled with some foolish candidates who continue to insist that Trump won the previous election for President, when a majority of us have indicated that philosophy is detrimental to the Party and its efforts in this current election period. Poor candidates, extremely poor messaging, toxicity from Trump and his slate and shouting out your agenda before you’ve won a seat at the table caused this melt down and I for one am disgusted with what leadership and Trump have now done to this country. Sadly, as long as Trump remains in the picture, and we don’t have a better message, we will lose again in 2024. My children and grandchildren are going to suffer for the exceedingly poor decisions of the current Republican party.

    • You just do not understand battle tactics. We have been at war since before the election of 2016. Learn and then enjoy all that is happening. It is all being exposed

    • Trump is the ONLY ticket out of this mess. You can’t move forward, until election fraud has been removed from the equation. You were either clueless before or are another victim of brainwashing and censorship. Have you not noticed all the brand new electronic voting machines? Do you think that was an accident? Do you really think that so many people are overjoyed with inflation, mandated jabs, men using the women’s bathroom, supply chain issues and energy problems? The list goes on and on. The corrupt Democrats fabricated ALL of this. Have you not noticed all of this took place after Biden stole the election? The virus was just a tool they used to dethrone Trump. I have not met one anti,-Trumper who can name one valid thing that wasn’t better with him in office. Nasty tweets are not a valid argument. Wake up America!! Things are not going to get better unless you start using your critical thinking and stop believing the FAKE NEWS media who is absolutely 100% controlled by the Deep State. Here in New Jersey our Fake Governor Murphy won a reelection. It’s the First time in 44 years a Democrat won a reelection IN 44 YEARS!! Is that amazing?? I think NOT. You know what else? They brought in the brand new DOMINION VOTING MACHINES. First time ever also was his record breaking vote tally. No one would know if you weren’t from this state. I’m sure these type of irregularities are happening all across the United (Divided) States of America. “United we Stand Divided we Fall” Wake Up America!! We need to take our country back.

      • Latest polls indicate a big move of Repubs and Indies, and even some Forever Trumpers are moving decisively and increasingly to DeSantis in the last month.

    • Lots of truth in what you said here. I just hope there is a future soon where the Democrats and their supporters do not succeed in stealing the election again and Republicans can get a hold on the situation to prevent their destructive goals for this country before there is no hope anymore.

      Of course, it doesn’t help when people are dumb enough to believe Biden’s lies about “extreme Republicans” and “Democracy is on the ballot”! What BS.

  4. Dems and rinos are one in the same, and they don’t want their playground remodeled, that would cut their incriminaltal income cut, nor do they want to answer to anyone.

  5. Why does everyone seem to accept that this election was on the up and up? We still have nationwide the DOMINION voting system which has been proven to be easily hackable. When has legitimate and reliable polls that over DECADES were on the money within +or – 5% been so “off” in their projections?

    It worked in 2020 and it worked again.

  6. THERE WAS DEFINNITELY ERAUD or whatever you choose to call it, maybe cheating in the 2020 election. THE 2020ELECTION WAS STOLEN FROM PRESIDENT TRUMP AND HE DESERVES ANOTHER TERM. I BELIEVE THERE IS STILL SOME DISHONESTY IN OUR ELECTIONS. PEOPLE WHO ARE VOTING WHO ARE NOT ELIGIBLE AND MACHINES NOT WORKING CORRECTLY.

    • Hasn’t ANYBODY noticed that so far in EVERY state where there was some excuse for them to delay counting ballots and declaring a winner, the conniving DEMMUNISTS HAVE WON? They counted until the Demmunists knew how many ballots they needed to manufacture to “win,” then there was a sudden problem to delay the count while they MANUFACTURED enough phony ballots to “win.” The SAME crap they pulled in 2020 when they kept “finding”” ballots–which, what do you know, were 99% for BIDEN–until they “found” enough to install that senile SOCK PUPPET in our White House, in place of the President we actually elected.

  7. This debacle of an election is more a testament to the endless gullibility of Democrat voters and the thieving Demmunists’ ability and willingness to lie and cheat–plus the political COWARDICE of establishment Repubicans who are seemingly AFRAID to call them out for their thievery and only want to “work with them”, apparently in their frenzied efforts to bankrupt and destroy this country than it is to anything else.

  8. We need better quality candidates, for sure. Mostly – the GOP must move on from Donald Trump to newer leaders who have better, broader appeal. Sorry, Donald – you were absolutely the right person at the right time when you got elected President. But now you are a weapon the Dems use against us.Very effectively.

  9. Establishment rinos and dems are one party, they decided the outcome before the election. Anything against Trump because he rocks their control boat.

  10. Election issues:

    o Indoc voters vote Blue
    o Kids voted Blue
    o TV ads blocked some states
    o NOT United GOP
    o Trump comments on Youngkin & Desantis
    o Voting software issues
    o Long vote count some states
    o Early voting

    Rerun same for 2024 & Lose again

    Remedy or Lose GOP

  11. The article is pretty good, with one exception. In Michigan, which was locked down by Whitmer almost worse than any other state, and where she sentenced nursing home residents to sure death by flooding nursing homes with the COVID -laced, a big deal was made out of it by Republicans, and it didn’t work. Not only were key positions won by Democrats, but they swept both legislative branches with their ilk!

  12. I fear that we the Divided States of Amerika-stan have now become…what is the word…Moron-ocracy? Idiot-ocracy? Alas,We the People have had it far too good for far too long with bread and circuses (welfare and Monday Night Football)…the Republic rots from within.

  13. I too was shocked at the gains made by Democrats during the midterms, but it recalls a quote from H.L. Mencken which certainly applies.  “No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people.”

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