Will Israel Strike Back At Iran? If So, How? What About Nukes?

ANALYSIS – Heading toward Armageddon. Israeli retaliation for Iran’s direct missile attack will focus on reestablishing deterrence and preventing similar attacks, but any response risks pushing the Middle East further towards all-out war.

The government of Benjamin Netanyahu needs to show the world that Israel cannot be directly attacked by anyone, especially not the Islamist terror regime in Tehran.

Dithering Joe Biden, struggling to appease his rabid, far-left base has already told Israel that the U.S. will not back an Israeli retaliatory strike on Iran. Other allies have also urged Israel not to risk igniting a wider regional conflict. (RELATED: Biden Admin Urged Iran To Limit Attack On Israel: Reuters)

Netanyahu will hopefully ignore Biden and the others.

But what can Israel do? And what is the overall balance of forces between Iran and Israel, including Iran’s terrorist proxy groups in the region?

Well, to start, Israel’s military options include strikes on Iranian allies and proxies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, as well as targeting Iran itself.

According to the U.S. private intelligence organization Stratfor, “Israel’s response will be driven in part by the Israeli government’s perception of the risk of overt conflict with Iran, the degree to which the U.S. supports the response and the Cabinet’s perception of public support for the type of escalation against Iran.”

Stratfor continued:

Israel can conduct intense airstrikes on proxies in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, where it has conducted numerous attacks before, with an increased focus on IRGC assets and officials, and which may extend to more strikes on Iranian diplomatic facilities like the April 1 Damascus strike. It may also extend strikes against the Houthis in Yemen and/or against Iranian personnel stationed there, though such strikes would likely need U.S. backing. Israeli may also consider strikes against Iran itself, particularly the launch sites and infrastructure associated with the April 13 attack [or Iranian nuclear facilities], but such an operation would be logistically challenging for the Israeli Air Force, would require the cooperation of the United States and may need multiple rounds of strikes before infrastructure is sufficiently impacted to the point where the Israeli government believes deterrence has been reestablished. 

While the two countries do not share a common border, each has missile, aerial and naval forces that can cause each other serious harm if tensions turn hot. According to the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), the Iranian Armed Forces are the largest in the Middle East in terms of troop numbers.

They count 587,000 active personnel and 200,000 reservists. The figures include upwards of 190,000 troops from the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), plus Basij paramilitaries. However, these bloated numbers also include over 200,000 estimated militants and terrorists with now decimated Hamas, Palestinian Jihad, Hezbollah, and others.

Meanwhile, Israel has 169,500 active personnel and 465,000 reservists, around two-thirds of whom have been stationed near the Gaza Strip since Hamas’ attacks of October 7. (RELATED: Iran Has Funneled Loads Of Chinese Arms To Hamas Terrorists)

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute has calculated Israel’s defense budget at about $23.4 billion (including $3.18 billion in annual U.S. military aid). Iran’s defense budget is less than $7 billion (not counting the billions given or released by Team Biden).

IISS says Iran has around 334 combat aircraft despite more than 25,000 personnel. In contrast, Israel has 339 combat-ready aircraft, 309 fighter jets, 50 F-35 stealth fighters (some possibly nuclear capable) and 142 helicopters.

But much of Iran’s inventory is very old and outdated.

Whereas, three stealth F-35s were undetected in 2018 when they flew a “test mission” over Iran’s capital, Tehran. And that’s a big deal. This highlights the technological superiority Israel’s defense forces possess.

Pentagon officials have previously stated that Iran possesses over 3,000 ballistic missiles. Israel has around 90 nuclear-capable Jericho III ICBMs, although the actual number is classified. Israel’s nukes provide it the “Samson Option.”

This is Israel’s deterrence strategy of massive retaliation with nuclear weapons as a “last resort” (to bring it all down) against a country whose military has invaded and/or destroyed much of Israel.

Let’s hope it doesn’t get to that. But, due to the weekend’s Iranian escalation to attacks on Israel itself, the shadow warfare between Israel and Iran increasingly threatens to spill over into open conflict.

Until now, Iran had avoided direct attacks on Israel, instead pursuing asymmetrical warfare through its regional proxy armies. That has now changed. (RELATED: How US And Israeli Air Defenses Saved Countless Lives)

Stratfor concludes:

Iran’s direct attack on Israel shattered the status quo and rules of engagement that have defined Iran and Israel’s shadow war for two decades, increasing the likelihood of another crisis involving the two countries militarily striking each other again. Prior to Israel’s attack on an Iranian consular building and Iran’s retaliation against Israel, Iran and Israel since 2006 avoided directly striking each other and instead operated through proxies and covert activity to target one another. With the Damascus attack, Israel has made it clear to Iran that it is willing to target Iranian diplomatic sites and, potentially with its retaliation, Iran with kinetic military action. Iran has demonstrated that it is willing to do the same in Israel, going beyond just an attack on a disputed region like the Golan Heights to carry out strikes throughout most of Iran. Their activity effectively normalizes the acceptability of strikes one on another, potentially increasing the likelihood either country will select this option again.

Things could get very ugly, very quickly.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.

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Paul Crespo

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Paul Crespo is the Managing Editor of American Liberty Defense News. As a Marine Corps officer, he led Marines, served aboard ships in the Pacific and jumped from helicopters and airplanes. He was also a military attaché with the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) at U.S. embassies worldwide. He later ran for state and federal office, taught political science, wrote for the editorial board of a major newspaper and had his own radio show. A graduate of Georgetown, London and Cambridge universities, he brings decades of experience and insight to the issues that most threaten our American liberty – at home and from abroad. To read more go to: paulcrespo.com.

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