New crime data suggest the Trump administration’s aggressive public safety agenda is coinciding with a steep national decline in murders, marking one of the largest one-year drops on record.
An analysis by crime data expert Jeff Asher shows murders fell by roughly 20% nationwide from January through October compared with the same period in 2024.
The findings are based on the Real-Time Crime Index, which compiles homicide data from 570 law enforcement agencies across the country. The index tracks murders while excluding manslaughter, self-defense, negligent homicides, and accidental killings.
While the Real-Time Crime Index currently runs only through October and official FBI violent crime data for 2025 will not be released until 2026, Axios reported that the index has historically closely mirrored federal crime statistics.
That consistency suggests the current decline is not a statistical anomaly and may represent one of the sharpest annual drops in homicide ever recorded.
Trump Centers Second Term on Crime
President Donald Trump has made combating violent crime a central focus of his second term, frequently directing federal resources toward local law enforcement efforts and, in some cases, overriding local officials.
In August, Trump declared a crime emergency in Washington, D.C., and ordered the National Guard to assist local authorities in restoring public safety.
The effect in the nation’s capital was swift. According to the Real-Time Crime Index, murders in Washington dropped nearly 28% this year.
House Speaker Mike Johnson said the move delivered “immediate results in the nation’s capital,” pointing to Metropolitan Police Department data showing homicides fell nearly 60% in August 2025 compared with August 2024.
Federal Support Expanded Nationwide
Trump broadened his law-and-order approach nationwide in July, signing an executive order targeting crime and public disorder. The order authorized expanded federal assistance to help local law enforcement combat violent crime and stabilize communities.
The administration also deployed National Guard units to Memphis, Tennessee, another city struggling with elevated violence. There, murders declined by nearly 20% from 2024 to 2025, according to the index.
Large metropolitan areas across the country reported similar reductions in homicide.
New York City recorded a 17.6% decline in murders compared with last year. New Orleans saw a 7.5% decrease, while Los Angeles reported homicides down by nearly 19%.
Long-Term Trend, With Local Exceptions
The national decline did not begin this year. Real-Time Crime Index data show crime rates have been trending downward since 2021, a pattern also reflected in FBI statistics.
Asher noted that the index shows “sizable declines” across nearly every major crime category and across all population groups tracked.
At the same time, the data reveal sharp contrasts at the local level. A small number of jurisdictions experienced significant spikes in homicide. Gilbert, Arizona, and Johnston County, North Carolina, each reported murder totals up 600% this year, highlighting how localized conditions can still drive violence despite broader national improvements.
To further test the trend, Asher examined the 30 U.S. cities with the highest murder totals in 2024. Updated data were available through November for 29 of those cities, with Phoenix tracked through September.
Murders in that group were down nearly 20%, suggesting the overall decline is likely to continue through the end of the year.
Other Violent Crimes Decline
The downward trend extends beyond homicide. Nationwide, motor vehicle thefts fell by 23.2%, aggravated assaults dropped by 7.5%, and robberies declined by 18.3%.
Taken together, the data point to broad improvements in public safety as the Trump administration has emphasized enforcement, increased federal backing for police, and moved away from progressive criminal justice approaches.
While final federal statistics remain months away, early indicators suggest the administration’s crime strategy is producing measurable results across much of the country.
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