Democrats Worry Polls Are Again Undercounting Trump Vote

ANALYSIS – Vice President “Kackling Komrade” Kamala Harris should be polling much higher against former President Donald “The Dogfighting Don” Trump. At least that is what several Democrat strategists are saying.

And they are concerned that the polls are seriously undercounting the Trump vote. Meanwhile, Republicans are hopeful they are right.

Some polls from two weeks ago had Harris up 3 points over Trump nationally,  but the numbers are much tighter in key swing states.

Newsmax reported:

More than a dozen polls released this month from outlets including NBC News, CBS News, Fox News, and the New York Post show Harris with a slim lead over Trump nationwide, while others, from outlets including Rasmussen Reports and Atlas Intel, show Trump in the lead or the two candidates tied, according to RealClearPolitics.

Despite these results, several Senate Democrats voiced their concerns over the weekend that these surveys may undercount the Trump vote, with many noting that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton similarly outperformed Trump in many polls leading up to her loss in the 2016 presidential election.

“Polling has really been seriously damaged since 2016. And that’s one of the truths, is that Trump is going to be tough in Pennsylvania, and that’s absolutely the truth,” Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa., said on NBC News in an interview over the weekend.

One Democrat senator, whose name was withheld by The Hill so they could speak candidly, said it’s “ominous” and “concerning” that Harris isn’t polling as well as Clinton and President Joe Biden were before the 2016 and 2020 elections, respectively.

The same senator said that many Trump supporters don’t want to talk with pollsters or don’t want to discuss their political views.

This makes it extremely difficult for pollsters when they conduct surveys.

These views dovetail nicely with the Trump supporting women in Pennsylvania recently referred to who said that the polls on Harris and Trump were totally off in their state, and that Trump was solidly ahead.

This, after a cross-country trek to see J.D. Vance and Tucker Carlson at a live event in Hershey, Pennsylvania.

And that is what happened before. In 2016 Trump led in only one of the 133 polls that were taken in the three Blue Wall battleground states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, giving Hillary Clinton a comfortable lead all the way up to Election Day.

But, on election night, Trump carried all three states, and the surprise wins helped seal his Electoral College victory. 

However, some experts disagree this is happening now.

Newsweek noted that:

The former president overperformed his polling numbers on Election Day in 2016 and 2020, but his chances of doing that again this year are lower because polls have gotten better at capturing likely Trump supporters who were undercounted in the past, according to pollsters tracking the 2024 race for the White House.

“Many pollsters today are using past vote [history] to correct for the Trump undercount,” said Cliff Young, the president of Ipsos polling.

Young and other pollsters said they’ve adjusted their methodology in numerous other ways to make sure they include an accurate mix of Democratic and Republican voters.

Polls now increasingly draw their samples from voter registration databases instead of relying on randomized lists of telephone numbers.

Still, Republicans are hopeful that polls showing a dead-even presidential race, or even ones favoring Harris, don’t reflect the real level of support for Trump.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.

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