Is The Election Really Too Close To Call?

Bill Huber from Goshen, United States, CC BY 2.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

ANALYSIS – Maybe. Or maybe not. But it may not matter. We will soon know the results. And if it is as close as the pollsters, betters and pundits say, our country will be just as divided and angry regardless of who wins.

In addition to ideology, religion and values, polls show voters are split along gender, ethnic and educational lines. There is also a huge urban-rural divide.

Donald Trump has seen his popularity with men, especially Hispanic and younger men, improve greatly, while Kamala Harris has seen her standing among women surge.

And no matter what the election results are, these divisions will only remain, and likely become even more entrenched, raising the political tension and likelihood of civil conflict.

Still, let’s have one last look at the election predictions, polls and analysis.

A flurry of last-minute national polls arrived over the weekend which, when averaged out, show Kamala Harris with a slender 1% lead over Donald Trump nationally.

That doesn’t mean much though. It’s well within the margin of error, making it impossible to predict an outcome.

According to ABC News’ FiveThirtyEight poll tracker, Harris is in the lead on 47.9%, while Trump has 46.9%.

Beyond that what really matters are the key swing states.

While about 240 million people are eligible to vote in this year’s U.S. election, only about 150 million will likely vote, and just a few thousand votes in key swing states are likely to decide whether Harris or Trump wins the White House.

The winner will likely be decided in seven battleground states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin—that were very close in the previous 2020 election between Joe Biden and Trump.

And they are also very, very close now. The seven states won by fewer than 3 percentage points in 2020 are also likely to be close this November 5: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

The biggest prize in the seven swing states in this election is Pennsylvania, because it has the highest number of electoral college votes on offer and therefore makes it easier for the winner to hit the required 270 votes to become president.

Meanwhile, one dark cloud has just emerged over the Harris campaign: the number of U.S. job openings available to job seekers have been tumbling under the Harris-Bidenadministration.

According to the latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of job openings available to job seekers is narrowing in the United States, with some 12,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in October—down from 223,000 new jobs added in September.

Previous reports have also shown that many of the jobs being generated under Harris-Biden have been going primarily to illegal foreigners, rather than American citizens and legal residents.

Whether these negative last minute economic statistics will sway any remaining voters, is hard to say. At this point we can only hope. And pray.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.

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Paul Crespo

Paul Crespo is the Managing Editor of American Liberty Defense News. As a Marine Corps officer, he led Marines, served aboard ships in the Pacific and jumped from helicopters and airplanes. He was also a military attaché with the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) at U.S. embassies worldwide. He later ran for state and federal office, taught political science, wrote for the editorial board of a major newspaper and had his own radio show. A graduate of Georgetown, London and Cambridge universities, he brings decades of experience and insight to the issues that most threaten our American liberty – at home and from abroad. To read more go to: paulcrespo.com.

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