ANALYSIS – Will this provoke a wider regional war with Iran? Although the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza has captured the world's attention, there is a serious risk of war between Israel and Lebanon's Iran-backed Hezbollah, according to a recent assessment by CSIS, a think tank in Washington, D.C.
As the big conflict is looming Israeli plans are being readied for an invasion of southern Lebanon if diplomacy doesn't work. And so far, the talking has achieved little.
Any major war between Israel and Hezbollah would likely bring Iran into the fight. Tehran has already proven willing and able to strike Israel directly with a barrage of rockets and drones.
If it does so again, expect a more significant counterattack by Israel.
To this end, the United States, represented by special envoy Amos Hochstein, is using diplomacy to negotiate with Lebanese leaders, and thus indirectly with Hezbollah, while Israel is putting military pressure on the group through a mix of strikes on Hezbollah forces and leaders.
On July 3, Hezbollah announced the death of Muhammad Naama Nasser, aka Hajj Abu Naama, killed in an Israeli airstrike which targeted his vehicle in the al-Housh area southeast of Tyre, in Lebanon.
Hezbollah responded to the killing with six attacks on military targets in northern Israel over two days. Two of the attacks, the most extensive since the start of the hostilities in October 2023, were simultaneous, with upwards of 200 rockets launched at IDF headquarters and bases.
CSIS explained further: “Since October 7, 2023, there have been over 4,400 rocket, missile, and other stand-off attacks by Israel and Hezbollah combined. Hezbollah has also repeatedly violated UN Security Council Resolution 1701 by deploying forces and firing anti-tank guided missiles and other stand-off weapons against Israel from the zone between the Blue Line and the Litani River, according to CSIS geolocation analysis.”
It added:
…the security situation has dramatically worsened in recent months for several reasons: the October 7 attacks profoundly increased Israeli insecurity; the displacement of over 150,000 civilians on both sides of the Israel-Lebanon border has created growing pressure, particularly in Israel, to alter the security situation so that civilians can return; Hezbollah and Iranian-linked groups in Lebanon and Syria continue to stockpile stand-off weapons that can hit Israel; and Hezbollah continues to violate UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1701. Taken together, these factors have created a volatile situation in an already tense Middle East.
US special envoy Hochstein is seeking an agreement through which the Lebanese and Israeli sides can “appear victorious,” according to Naharnet – Lebanon's independent media.
“One of the exits that he is looking for would be a balanced, mutual retreat from both sides of the border by Hezbollah's fighters and the Israeli army with U.S. guarantees and an active role for the UN forces,” Naharnet reported.
Hezbollah, one of the most heavily armed, non-state groups in the world, is the most formidable of Iran's allies in its so-called “Axis of Resistance,” which includes Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, Iraqi militias and others.
Hezbollah's firepower is believed to number around 150,000 rockets including hundreds of ballistic missiles capable of putting most of Israel within its reach.
Many of the rockets are unguided, but it also has precision missiles, drones and anti-tank, anti-aircraft and anti-ship missiles.
Hezbollah's main supporter and weapons supplier is Iran. Experts say the Islamic Republic sends arms to the group by land via Iraq and Syria, both Middle East countries where Iran has close ties and influence. Many of the group's weapons are Iranian, Russian or Chinese models.
As CSIS notes:
Israel faces a dilemma. It can risk war with Hezbollah, but in the process, a war would broaden the fighting in a way that makes the current war in Gaza look like a minor dust-up. Israel could also wait, which would avoid war now with Hezbollah, but this could risk a more serious conflict in the future with a foe that is better armed and capable and that could control the timing of a war to its advantage.
Meanwhile, Sky News reports:
Israel is preparing for war with Hezbollah by storing blood underground amid repeated attacks from across the border with Lebanon. A subterranean car park in Haifa, just 28 miles from the border, has been converted into a five-acre hospital to cope if war breaks out.
The outlet adds: “Not far away, in part of the same subterranean complex, is a new operations room for Israel's national ambulance service, Magen David Adom (MDA).”
Ask Israelis now, and most will tell you it's a matter of when, not if, they go to war with Hezbollah.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.
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