ANALYSIS – Following the purported death of Yevgeny Prigozhin and his top lieutenants on August 23 in a suspicious plane crash, Russian leaders and at least two intelligence agencies are scrambling to gain control of his and the Wagner Group's sprawling global interests.
While Wagner played a key role in Russia's invasion of Ukraine, as well as operating in Syria, its most significant and lucrative overseas interest is Prigozhin's operations in Africa, including countries such as Libya, Mali, and the Central African Republic (CAR).
The group's future was thrown into uncertainty in late June when Prigozhin led a failed, short-lived mutiny against Russia's military leaders. But now the Kremlin, mostly via the SVR and GRU intelligence agencies, is vying to gain control of Wagner's valuable Africa network.
Not only does it provide financial benefits, but it also allows Moscow to counter the U.S. and Western, mostly French, influence in the region.
As part of his effort to discredit Prigozhin, Vladimir Putin claimed the mercenary leader had amassed a $4 billion dollar fortune from African “gold and bling.”
While Wagner's Africa operations traded in diamonds, gold, and lumber, and Prigozhin profited greatly, American officials believe Putin's claim is likely greatly exaggerated.
Still, Moscow wants in.
As The New York Times reported:
Nowhere does Wagner's operation now carry more value for Russia than in African countries including Libya and the Central African Republic, where its mercenaries have gained trust and wealth by propping up strongmen and autocrats. Those efforts helped increase Russia's influence on the continent while weakening Western powers like France and the United States.
Western officials briefed on confidential intelligence assessments say two Russian spy agencies — the foreign intelligence service, the S.V.R., and the military intelligence agency, the G.R.U. — are vying to take over key aspects of Mr. Prigozhin's operations. Two officials, from different governments, said that the S.V.R. was likely to absorb Wagner's propaganda and online disinformation outlets targeting foreign countries, while the Defense Ministry and the G.R.U. could take in Wagner's mercenary operation.
Meanwhile, Russia's mercenary Wagner Group, founded by Prigozhin in 2014, is set to be declared a terrorist organization by the UK government – meaning it will be illegal to be a member or support the group.
A draft order to be laid in Parliament will allow its assets to be categorized as terrorist property and seized. Wagner fighters have been accused of numerous crimes, including killing and torturing Ukrainian citizens, as well as Africans and others.
That doesn't seem to bother Moscow. Last week Russia's deputy defense minister Yunus-bek Yevkurov led a delegation that toured three African countries.
The NYT continued:
There were signs on Mr. Yevkurov's swing through Africa that the military intelligence branch will play a key role in whatever happens next: the delegation included one of Russia's top spies, Gen. Andrei V. Averyanov, known for having led an elite unit specializing in subversion, sabotage and assassination abroad.
Videos released by Burkina Faso and Mali showed General Averyanov next to Mr. Yevkurov as they courted the countries' leaders. Western officials see the general as a leading candidate to oversee at least some of the former Wagner operations as part of an evolving system featuring multiple private military companies.
However, others point to Prigozhin's son, Pavel, who is in his 20s, as a possible leader of the headless Wagner forces. Many believe he will try to assert control over his father's company.
Before his death, his father said that his son had fought in Syria and “was and is constantly in hot spots as part of the Wagner P.M.C. [private military company].”
Whether his son's exploits are true or not, expect internal Wagner resistance to being fully absorbed by the Russian defense establishment.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.
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Of course: because they know that brain-dead Brandon won;t lift a finger to stop them.