ANALYSIS – What went wrong? How did the Secret Service bungle this so badly? By now most of the world has heard about and likely seen video and images of the deadly assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania.
The FBI is now investigating the attack as an act of “domestic terrorism.”
The iconic photo of a defiant Trump, face bloodied from the bullet that grazed his head, and fist pumping, is one for the history books. It will also likely seal his election win in November.
Trump is also extremely lucky to be alive.
A half inch kept the high speed 5.56 mm rifle round from blowing his brains out. A brief turn of his head, at just the right time, and just the right angle instead made the bullet hit and go through Trump's right ear.
This is something Trump has noted himself. On Sunday he said he was “supposed to be dead” and that he survived the assassination attempt only by luck or by God.
“I'm not supposed to be here, I'm supposed to be dead,” Trump told the New York Post.
On the flip side, the attack has immediately spawned a deluge of misinformation, disinformation, falsehoods and conspiracy theories. Most based on short clips or still shots of the event well after the shooting took place.
I watched the entire event live on TV allowing me to base my thoughts on almost firsthand, or at least real time, observation.
I will stick to confirmed facts as much as possible and analysis based on credible reporting and experience from my time as a Marine Corps officer, military attaché at U.S. embassies overseas, and work in dignitary protection.
How the Democrats' heated anti-Trump political rhetoric – “existential threat to democracy” – played a role, or what the attack means for the future of our country, and what it says about our current state, I will analyze later.
Right now, I will focus on something else everyone is asking? What went wrong?
Nothing expressed below takes away from the bravery or professionalism of the individual Secret Service agents and members of the US Secret Service (USSS) Counter Assault Team (CAT) at the event. Once engaged they reacted quickly, and for the most, part well.
Still, how did the Secret Service, America's, if not the world's, premier protective agency, allow a would-be assassin with a long gun onto a nearby rooftop within 150 yards of Trump? Why didn't its Counter Sniper (CS) teams see him in time to take him out, before he fired his shots that killed one innocent bystander, injured at least two others and nearly killed the former president?
First the basics.
The gunman, shot and killed at the scene by – we believe – a Secret Service Counter Sniper Team, has been identified by the FBI as 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks.
The man, who graduated high school in 2020 was a registered Republican, only voted in one election due to his age, but he did contribute a small amount online to a left-wing group as soon as Joe Biden was inaugurated in 2021.
Crooks was also a member of a local gun club and likely had basic marksmanship training. The AR-15 style rifle was legally purchased by his father a few months earlier.
He was able to climb to the roof of a warehouse type building less than 150 yards from where Trump was speaking at his rally unobserved by authorities. One Secret Service CS team was located on the roof of one of three buildings just behind where Trump was speaking.
There were only a few buildings anywhere near the site. Another CS team which took out the gunman was located elsewhere, reportedly almost 500 yards away. There were also reportedly two local police tactical CS teams in the area.
A local police officer reportedly climbed the ladder to the roof of the building that the shooter was perched on, only after numerous rally attendees warned them someone with a gun was on the roof.
As soon as the officer looked over the edge Crooks leveled his AR rifle at him and the officer quickly ducked, hanging from the side, unable to reach his weapon or get a shot. The gunman then fired off several rounds at Trump.
And why were the local cops so clueless as people were yelling and pointing to the roof? To begin with, the building used by the shooter should have been secured by local or state police and covered by a CS team.
The fact that it wasn't was a clear failure to identify the location as a potential threat by the Secret Service advance team, sent in early to survey the site. Or it was a failure to coordinate with local and state law enforcement to secure the building.
Or it was a failure to ensure that the locals had in fact done their jobs correctly prior to the event. Either way. This all falls on the Service.
Alternatively, some sort of visual barrier should have been placed around the stage to prevent line of sight from any elevated positions nearby.
When I worked with the Secret Service on President Clinton's state visit to Caracas, Venezuela, I convinced the Venezuelan government to actually make and erect large cloth panels in the colors of the Venezuelan flag around the venue to block the view from several high-rise buildings nearby.
This, despite the insistence by the host government that their forces were securing every floor of those buildings. Without those panels, the Secret Service was ready to veto the site.
Then there are clear rifle round resistant ballistic panels that could have been placed around the stage between Trump and any elevated line of sight positions.
We also need to note the sheer luck or divine intervention that followed. Perhaps the officer who stumbled on Crooks on the roof minutes before the shooting frazzled the gunman enough to affect his focus and targeting.
Erik Prince – a former U.S. Navy SEAL who founded the private military company Blackwater, now known as Academi, wrote on X that Trump was still alive “solely due to a bad wind estimate by an evil would-be assassin,” as a light five mph crosswind was likely enough to push the small caliber, likely 55 grain, 5.56 bullet off course by a couple of inches.
Prince added that based on the way counter-snipers initially reacted to the shots being fired, he believes that security had a “no ‘first shot' policy.”
Prince also criticizes Trump's extraction. Prince continued: “…once shots were fired their extraction was clumsy and left DJT highly exposed to follow on attacks. It looked like they had never drilled together because those responses should be effectively autonomic.”
Also noted were the number of female agents in the protective detail, most being too short to properly cover, or if needed strong enough to lift the president. One female agent was seen fumbling with her sidearm, unable to holster it just outside the ex-president's black armored Suburban.
Did ‘diversity' hiring play a role in this debacle? That we will leave for later. Regardless, this deadly, nearly successful assassination attempt could have been prevented.
But as Prince wrote: “Will there be accountability? That's not the Washington way.”
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.
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domestic terrorism? do we actually pay the idiots that write this stuff?
wasn’t a failure it was a plan! things like this don’t happen by accident