At a moment the Pentagon is busy rearranging its defense priorities toward readiness for a potential future conflict with China, Beijing itself is wasting no time in preparing for just such a scenario, particularly related to the Taiwan question.
By Tyler Durden for Zero Hedge
“A classified US military intelligence report seen by the ABC says China is rapidly building up the country’s commercial ferry fleet to prepare for an invasion of Taiwan,” the Australian publication writes of a document said to be from earlier this year, prepared by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA).
This is nothing too new or much of a huge revelation, given Western intelligence – including the so-called Five Eyes which includes Australia – has for years been monitoring a trend where the PLA upgrades commercial ferries to become troop and tank carriers, for use in prior military exercises with an eye toward Taiwan.
Back in 2022, it was understood that China had over two dozen such modified ferries, but the ABC report cites that “China is building more than 70 of the large vessels by the end of 2026” – based on US intelligence forecasts.
Taiwan’s Ambassador to Tiawan, Douglas Hsu, has described that “Civilian vessels or other dual-use facilities in the maritime domain are also part of China’s strategy” for a future potential assault on the self-ruled island.
The ‘Classified’ DIA report contains some alarming information, including that the Pentagon would consider Chinese ferries ‘fair game’ for attack given their military ‘dual use’ purpose:
Satellite intelligence of the ferries from earlier this year shows them being used alongside a series of new landing docks off China’s coastline, as well as deploying amphibious forces in military exercises.
The landing docks are a new class of vessel that allows the ferries to deploy cargo and people onto a beach.
The US Department of Defense intelligence report assessed the commercial ferries as possible military targets in a conflict scenario with China. This means the ferries could be targeted and sunk by US forces in the event of a Taiwan crisis, even with civilian crews on board.
US intelligence has voiced that it believes Chinese President Xi Jinping to be ready to be capable of a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the year 2027 if called upon.
It remains that these type of somewhat hyped threat assessments seem to be a regular thing issued from Western intel agencies about every year or so.
However, China’s official position remains that it wants reunification of Taiwan by peaceful means – though over the last years its military has ramped up ‘encircling exercises’ around Taiwan, provoking the condemnation of Washington.
China watcher and regional analyst Professor Hu Bo told ABC, “It’s common sense that China is preparing for a Taiwan crisis. This does not mean China will do something quickly in the future. Preparation is not the same as intention.”
So both the US and Chinese sides appear to be in a phase of long-terms preparation, hopefully for a war which will never be fought. Both will also seek to develop ‘deterrence’ capabilities in the Pacific region.
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The PLA continues is shows of force and strength, aimed no doubt at Taiwan’s number one backer the United States…
Read the original article in its entirety on ZeroHedge.
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Human nature entices us to deny the likelihood of unpleasant scenarios. This can often lead to much more serious consequences down the road. Consider what happened in World War II.
All they need to do is wait out President Trump. That’s what they are betting on. China will attack Taiwan just as sure as the Arabs in Gaza will attack Israel again in ten years.