US Must Prepare For Conventional And Nuke Warfare With China

WEDNESDAY PDB – It may not be either, but both. Managing conventional and nuclear uncertainty in the Indo-Pacific. The war in Ukraine has reminded us that nuclear arms remain useful tools of international statecraft.

Meanwhile, Russia's nuclear threats have included both tactical and strategic nuclear systems, demonstrating that nuclear signaling occurs at multiple levels.

Now, how do we apply all this to China?

“Rather than dismiss, ignore, or overlook conventional-nuclear integration discussions, U.S. operational leaders must understand that China's nuclear future is dangerous and uncertain, and that the U.S. is ill-prepared for this ambiguous future,” write two CNAS experts.

The age of nuclear systems being defined by Cold War thinking is over, and Washington's understanding of how China views its nuclear arsenal needs to change accordingly.

Simply put, a modernized nuclear arsenal expands their available deterrent and coercive options, and Washington should not be complacent to believe that overt nuclear coercion is a uniquely Russian tactic.

China's new and expanded nuclear capabilities combined with the PRC's already advanced conventional strike systems introduce tremendous uncertainty in US-PRC escalation dynamics. With respect to conventional operations, the PRC's published concepts call for aggressive strike operations against key adversary nodes should conflict become inevitable. 

These same documents also outline strategies that blur the line between nuclear and conventional escalation.

The combination of an aggressive conventional targeting doctrine with precise, discriminate nuclear weapons, and powerful non-kinetic capabilities highlights what we call “the conventional-nuclear crossfade.”

In this “crossfade” zone, aggressive conventional operations may hold equal or greater escalation risks than nonstrategic nuclear strikes, making the latter, almost paradoxically, more attractive and tolerable.

FOR YOUR EYES ONLY – Here's a roundup of today's other top defense stories from conservative national security expert PAUL CRESPO.

Not the President's Daily Brief, but almost as good – PAUL'S DAILY BRIEFING – the PDB:       

NATIONAL SECURITY

HIT IRANIAN LEADERSHIP DIRECTLY – US arrests Pakistani man with ties to Iran in alleged plot to kill Trump and other US politicians.

SAD – Most Americans oppose sending US troops to defend Israel, poll finds. Support for such a move has fallen to the lowest level in more than a decade.

The two biggest global trends are at war. World leaders will have to learn to navigate the contradictions of the new world order.

Depth of magazine: Preparing the joint force for protracted conflict. To deter and prevent prolonged war, the U.S. and its allies need deep enough weapons magazines for extended conflicts, argues the assistant commandant of the U.S. Marine Corps.

POLITICS

JD Vance represents veterans on ballot, but some ask, ‘At what cost?' Some Iraq and Afghanistan veterans believe Vance's ascension is worth celebrating, while others who served in those wars are speaking out against him.

DISHONORABLE VETERAN – Kamala Harris taps Tim Walz, National Guard veteran, as running mate. Tim Walz is the current governor of Minnesota, a former high school teacher, a six-term congressman and a veteran of the Army National Guard who avoided serving in Iraq.

US POWER OVERSEAS

US Navy jets sent to base in Middle East to bolster Israel defense. About a dozen F/A-18 fighter jets from the Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier have flown to a military base in the Middle East to help defend Israel from possible attacks by Iran and its proxies and to safeguard U.S. troops.

Crew of USS Mason adapted to demands of intense Red Sea deployment. When sailors assigned to DDG-87 were in workups last year, many expected a standard Mediterranean Sea deployment.

US, Australia announce additional basing and joint weapons building plans.

ISRAEL'S WAR AGAINST TERROR

Hamas says it has chosen Yahya Sinwar, mastermind of the barbarous Oct. 7 attacks on Israel, as its new leader.

As sonic booms rock Beirut, Hezbollah chief vows a ‘strong and effective' retaliation. This, as Israeli jets hit the city, breaking some glass windows and sending civilians scattering. It's a move that seemed designed to send a message to Hezbollah as the region waits to see if — or more likely, when — the Lebanese-based terror group attacks Israel again.

IRAN THREAT

How Iran is calibrating its promised revenge on Israel for Haniyeh killing. Iran's leadership appears torn between exacting harsh revenge to save face and exercising restraint to avoid an unpredictable and devastating cycle of escalation.

5 US troops, 2 contractors injured in rocket attack at Iraq base.

CHINA THREAT

Chinese American scholar convicted of spying on dissidents for Beijing. Shujun Wang was arrested as part of a U.S. initiative to crack down on Beijing's efforts to surveil the communist government's critics abroad.

RUSSIA THREAT – UKRAINE WAR

Long battle for a ruined city takes a desperate turn. Ukrainian troops are engaged in a harsh struggle for Toretsk, a strategic city in eastern Ukraine that has been under relentless assault by Russian forces.

NORTH KOREA THREAT

North Korea seeks to mirror the South's defense sector boom. On the other side of the border, North Korea's defense industry has a new major customer: Russia.

SPACE THREAT

‘Space fires' to enable ‘space superiority' are top SPACECOM priorities for FY27. “Space fires” will enable “space superiority,” and “enhanced battlespace awareness” capabilities.

New weather satellites will start feeding data to warfighters this fall. The Space Force expects to finish calibrating and start using it in coming months.

INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

FOR NOW – Venezuela election: Army stands by Maduro despite opposition. The Venezuelan military has rejected calls by the opposition to intervene after President Nicolas Maduro won another term in a contested vote.

US MILITARY

Air Force tries out new pylon on B-1, transforming bomber into ‘hypersonic testbed.' The service now has a second way — besides the B-52 — to test large weapons like hypersonic missiles.

First Huey replacement helicopter delivered to US Air Force. Boeing has delivered the first production MH-139A Grey Wolf helicopter.

Can the Pentagon keep a carrier connected on long-range voyage? The Pentagon's push to share battle data amongst US and allied forces worldwide, known as CJDAC2, is going on tour in 2025.

Weak spots in metal may have led to fatal Osprey crash off Japan. A gear crack that led to a fatal crash of a V-22 tiltrotor last year may have been started by weak spots in a metal used to manufacture that part.

Sky's the limit: Fort Stewart soldiers prepare for the modern battlefield by building small handheld drones from scratch.

Army seeks help finding missing pregnant wife of soldier in Hawaii who has been missing since last week.

END of PDB

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.

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