ANALYSIS – As far back as the tsars, Russian leaders have long worried about the ability of their nation to survive. For centuries they believed Russia needed to expand or die.
This fear only grew with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the loss of Russia's buffer colonies in Eastern Europe and the peeling away of what were once considered integral parts of the Russian empire, such as Ukraine, the ‘Stans,' in central Asia, et al.
Yet, Russia, at least most of ‘core' Russia, has survived.
Until now.
Today we see that Vladimir Putin, for all his concerns about the West wanting to dismember Russia as his excuse to attack Ukraine, may actually be accelerating the very danger he has used to justify his invasion.
And despite all the strategic discussions about possible nuclear exchanges, how much to arm Ukraine, ‘Red Lines' for Russia and much more, little has been said about the 800-pound gorilla.
What if Russia's loss in Ukraine triggers a wider collapse of Russia itself?
Should we be preparing for the potential collapse and disintegration of the Russian state and nation?
Alexander J. Motyl, a professor of political science at Rutgers University-Newark, argues that “It's High Time to Prepare for Russia's Collapse.”
In an article of the same name in Foreign Policy, Motyl states the case for Russia's impending implosion, saying the threat is growing daily: “In fact, the combination of a failed war abroad and a brittle, strained system at home is increasing the likelihood of some sort of implosion with every passing day.”
He adds: “Regardless of whether this will be good or bad for the West, it's an outcome policymakers should prepare for.”
Motyl continues:
There are various scenarios for what might happen in Russia after defeat in Ukraine becomes even clearer. Most likely is Russian President Vladimir Putin's departure from office, followed by a vicious power struggle among the extreme right-wing nationalists who want to continue the war effort and destroy the existing political hierarchy, authoritarian conservatives who have a stake in the system, and a resurgent semi-democratic movement committed to ending the war and reforming Russia. We don't know who will win, but we can confidently predict that the power struggle will weaken the regime and distract Russia from what remains of its war effort.
In turn, a weakened regime, in conjunction with a malfunctioning economy, will invite disgruntled Russians to take to the streets, perhaps even with arms, and encourage some of the non-Russian political units comprising the Russian Federation to opt for greater self-rule; leading candidates include Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Chechnya, Dagestan, and Sakha. If Russia survives this turmoil, it's likely to become a weak client state of China. If it does not, the map of Eurasia could look very different.
Given Russia's vast expanse, long history of restive regions, and large non-Russian ethnicities—all a result of centuries of imperial conquest—the one scenario that deserves much more attention is a disintegration of centralized control and breakup of the federation. There is a rich history of state collapse following wars, revolutions, system breakdowns, economic crises, and other epochal events. Napoleon's empire collapsed after his disastrous march on Moscow and subsequent defeat at the Battle of Leipzig.
In 1918, the Ottoman, Austro-Hungarian, German, and Russian empires all collapsed in military defeat. Of course, people, decisions, and policies played a role, but ultimately it was war and the attendant economic and social crises that pushed these states over the edge into political chaos and often violence.
While Russia could still survive a loss in Ukraine, even Putin may be having doubts. In his 2023 New Year's address, he invoked for the first time the Ukraine war's potential threat to Russia's independence.
The bigger question should be, would a likely Russian collapse be chaotic and violent, including civil war?
And what specific Russian collapse and post-collapse scenarios should we actually be preparing for?
Even more strategic and transcendental questions are what will China do? And as touched above by Motyl, how will China gain from Russia's demise?
More about these in my next piece. ALD
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.
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Russia is on shakey ground, but so is the US. WHO COMES FIRST? A communist nation or our very own country. Let Russia deal with Russia. We’ll deal with our own country. May the best man win.
Russia and the U.S. are both on their last legs and headed for collapse. Many of the former states of the west will probably revert to Mexico to which it once belonged. China will buy up most of our agricultural land and sell the food back to us at a price of their choosing.
What about China collapse Too??
China’s not going to collapse anytime soon due to how much they manufacture for the rest of the world. China also bankrolls American debt and is buying up American resources both inside the United States and around the world. All the CCP has to do is allow for incremental improvement in standard of living to stay in power. As America continues the march towards socialism our standard of living will go down.
You don’t talk about the costs to Ukraine, NATO, the EU and the US.
Ukraine has lost most of its electrical system. Satellite images show it is as dark as North Korea. Its people are flooding into Western Europe as refugees, overwhelming their resources. Ukraine’s industrial capacity is being destroyed and it will never recover. The European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen admitted that Ukraine had lost 100,000 KIA. Add in the MIA, LIA, and POWs and Ukraine’s losses are unsustainable. Ukraine is running out of troops, ammunition and weapons.
NATO is depleting its stock of weapons to levels that will take years to replenish. It turns out the advanced weapons that NATO is supplying to Ukraine are not making much difference. The M777 howitzers are breaking down. Russia air defenses are shooting down HIMARS missiles. NATO cannot sustain its supplies to Ukraine for much longer. They have also found out that Russia was well prepared for a land war with NATO.
The EU is having a “Come to Jesus” realization. Winter is coming and the Russian gas they relied upon isn’t. Their Green Energy policies that made them reliant on wind and solar have failed. Some EU states, such as Hungary, are bucking the sanctions regime against Russia. Europeans are also realizing that Uncle Sam is winning at their expense. US LPNG exports to Europe are much more expensive than Russian gas. Shame about the Nordstream pipelines being blown up. As European industries find high energy costs unsustainable, they will move to the US and Asia. All the German car manufacturers are already operating in the US and China, so it is an easy transition.
The US faces more challenges. The BRICS alliance is expanding. Saudi Arabia is set to join and other countries, such as Turkey, are lining up to join. The world’s largest energy exporters are seeking to replace the US dollar as the global trade currency. Already, Russian oil and gas is being traded in gold, Rubles and Yuan. That means that other countries do not need to invest in US dollars to buy energy. Our national debt will become unsustainable when the dollar loses its position as the currency of international trade.
Russia’s aim is to destroy the Ukranian military and it is doing this using artillery, drones, guided missiles and air power. Ukraine is trying to recover territory. Russia is letting them do it, cutting off their resupply routes and then pounding them with drone guided artillery. I’m guessing the Russians are losing one KIA to Ukraine’s ten. Russia has no need to negotiate with the West. It will reduce western Ukraine to an agricultural backwater and incorporate Russian speaking eastern Ukraine back into Mother Russia. To do that, according to Doug Macgregor, Russia has amassed 540,000 troops, 1,500 tanks, 100’s of other armored vehicles and huge numbers of aircraft and drones. Come winter, this force will roll over Ukraine. Then, talks, maybe.
I wonder how much The CIA paid Paul Crespo to write this tripe?
Paul, the story from Russians and foreigners living in Russia seems to be much different than what Mr. Moytl portrays. Stores are stocked, energy is stable and media (other than Netflix) is working well. Russia seems to be on glide path to survive.
Putin, however, will likely take a retirement at the behest of the global elites (WEF, etc.). We need to be discussing who his replacement will likely be in the unlikely event that it can be positively (for the US) be influenced.
We need to be ready to respond when Putin uses a nuke in Ukraine
I’ve said that eventually Russia will ally with the non-Chinese world to prevent a Chinese invasion across their common border to seize Russia’s oil, gas, and minerals. China has no oil or gas of its own, so must get it from somewhere. Russia is the logical place to acquire it. and eastern Russia is mostly uninhabited, unprotected, and right in China’s backyard. All China needs to transport the oil, gas, timber, and minerals they can extract from Russia to China are railroads and pipelines. China will likely end up buying all Russia’s surplus goods while Russia itself withers away with their practically non-existent birthrate. After China buys 100% of Russia’s gas and petroleum production, Western Europe will be in real trouble. The prediction Russia may become nothing more than a client state of China is a real possibility.
Last Revolution was 1917 & now its 2023.
Can anyone answer a quite possibly very stupid question???? Exactly WHY is the conversation about China and Russia when we are $40 trillion in debt and can’t seem to handle our own problems at home??? I guess criticizing everyone else is easier than coming up with our own answers!!! Come on guys—we’ve got everything in the world we could possibly ask for going on in our favor except we can’t figure out what to do and how to do it!!! We’ve taught, shown both China and Russia what to do—how to do it and they have been quite successful in building on everything they have learned in the last 70-80 years to be our equals if not betters—–that is not in question or the question!!!! The real question is what do we do from here on–forward, call it whatever you want!!! We’ve got problems we need to solve before we can do much—fact is we are “knee deep to a giraffe” in problems we need to solve before we solve China’s
or Russia’s!!!! Let’s go to work on our problems and stop worrying about our neighbors!!—-or is that to much to ask for before it is too late while we still have time??? Time is running out guys, you know it and so do I—-the neighbors are distracted right now but not for long!!!!