Airline executives are warning travelers to expect higher ticket prices in the months ahead as jet fuel costs spike, even as the Trump administration maintains that the increases will be temporary.
According to the International Air Transport Association, jet fuel prices have nearly doubled since the launch of Operation Epic Fury, mirroring a sharp rise in global crude oil prices. The surge has placed immediate financial pressure on airlines, many of which no longer hedge fuel costs and instead pass those increases directly on to consumers.
President Donald Trump said that the price spikes would not last, predicting oil costs would fall quickly once the conflict stabilizes. “When this is over, oil prices are going to go down very, very rapidly,” he said, adding that the United States expects to exit the conflict soon.
However, airline leaders are preparing for a longer period of elevated costs. Scott Kirby, CEO of United Airlines, estimated that oil prices could climb as high as $175 per barrel and may not return to $100 levels until late 2027.
“If oil prices stayed where they are today, that’s $11 billion of expenses for us,” Kirby said in a recent interview. “That would require prices to be up 20% to break even.”
Kirby indicated that United may cut less profitable routes, including red-eye and off-peak flights, and suspend certain international routes such as Tel Aviv and Dubai in response to rising costs.
Other major carriers are already adjusting pricing. JetBlue has increased checked baggage fees, while international fares have climbed significantly across the industry. Flights from New York to London, which previously started under $300, have more than doubled on some carriers, with Delta Air Lines, American Airlines, and United all reporting substantial fare hikes in March.
International airlines are following suit. Air France has raised long-haul ticket prices, while Cathay Pacific increased fuel surcharges by more than 30% beginning April 1, with plans for ongoing adjustments depending on oil market conditions.
American Airlines CEO Robert Isom said his company alone took a $400 million hit in the first quarter of 2026 due to fuel costs, though he noted that shorter domestic routes could help mitigate some of the impact.
The price surge comes despite the administration’s push for expanded domestic energy production. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum recently announced record offshore oil production levels and reiterated plans to further increase output. Energy Secretary Chris Wright also pointed to efforts to reopen pipelines and boost production, particularly in California, to stabilize supply.
Still, the trajectory of oil prices remains closely tied to geopolitical developments. The timeline for the end of the Iran conflict remains uncertain after Tehran rejected a proposed framework from the Trump administration. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the duration of the conflict would ultimately depend on when U.S. objectives are met.
For now, airlines and travelers alike are bracing for continued volatility. While the administration projects relief in the near term, industry leaders are signaling that higher travel costs could persist for years if energy markets remain strained.
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