By Tyler Durden ZeroHedge
Update (Thursday):
Apparently, sleep is for the weak. Around 0200 ET, President Trump fired off a Truth Social post, floating the idea that Europe and Canada could be hit with additional tariffs if they plotted against the US.
“If the European Union works with Canada in order to do economic harm to the USA, large-scale Tariffs, far larger than currently planned, will be placed on them both in order to protect the best friend that each of those two countries has ever had!” Trump wrote on his social media platform.
The euro pared a small gain, and the Canadian dollar fell following Trump’s social media post.
On Wednesday, Trump signed an order imposing a 25% tariff on all auto imports—a move he believes could reverse decades of disastrous industrial policy that have hollowed out the core of the country. The order takes effect next week, in addition to the ‘reciprocal tariffs’ set for April 2.
Bloomberg reported earlier that the EU is preparing countermeasures. France has asked the European Commission to consider using the anti-coercion instrument to strike back against Trump’s escalating trade war.
In the Oval Office on Wednesday, Trump told reporters that reciprocal levies would be lower than expected: “We’re going to make it all countries, and we’re going to make it very lenient. I think people are going to be very surprised. It’ll be, in many cases, less than the tariff that they’ve been charging us for decades.”
Also, in currency markets, the offshore yuan strengthened for the first time in eight days after Trump said he might consider lowering some of the tariff rates imposed on China.
Goldman analysts Sean Low and Peter Sheren provided clients earlier with their chart of the day, focusing on which countries most US auto imports come from…
We noted overnight (read here) that Japanese carmakers are among those facing the most devastating impact of Trump’s auto tariffs.
Goldman analyst Low provided a summary of the turmoil in JPN markets, especially pressure on the country’s auto sector:
Nikkei 225 -0.6%, snapping a 2-day rally, with automakers leading the decline after Trump’s tariff announced. Carmakers saw steep losses with Toyota 7203 JP -2%, Honda 7269 JP -2.5%, Subaru 7270 JP -5%, & Mazda 7261 JP -6%. Meanwhile, PM Shigeru Ishiba warned that Japan will not rule out countermeasures against Trump’s auto tariffs. Tech stocks retreated as tech-led selloff in US Investors continued to weigh the BoJ’s policy outlook after Governor Ueda told parliament that interest rate hikes would continue if economic projections held.
Increased trade tensions sent USD/JPY to 150.95, the highest since March 3.
The new, incoming tariffs place a massive burden on auto companies that have complex global supply chains.
Goldman analysts Chloe Garber, Jonathan Hurvitz, and Matthew Kaplan pointed out:
Tesla and Rivian make all their cars for the US market domestically, and we estimate per IHS/S&P Global Mobility data and media reports that Ford sources about 80% of its US vehicles domestically and GM is at roughly ~60-70% (note that both GM and Ford export some vehicles as well that are made in the United States).
There are some scenarios where the US OEMs can fully offset tariffs (or perhaps be net beneficiaries) through a combination of factors (adjusting supply chains, production, and pricing) but also scenarios where OEMs see material negative EPS revisions.
Back in the US, Tesla appears to be the big winner as the most made-up American car company…
However, Tesla’s Elon Musk noted: “Important to note that Tesla is NOT unscathed here. The tariff impact on Tesla is still significant.”
* * *
Update (1600 ET): President Trump has announced a 25% tariff on all cars not made in the US.
“This will continue to spur growth,” Trump told reporters.
Trump confirmed that these new tariffs are in addition to existing tariffs and are expected to result in $100 billion in revenues.
To underscore his seriousness, Trump said, “This is permanent.”
In addition to the tariffs, Trump discussed his plan to allow Americans to deduct interest payments on cars that are made in America.
If the car is built in the US, there will be no tariffs.
“We are going to charge countries for doing business in our country and taking our jobs, taking our wealth, taking a lot of things that they have been taking over the years.”
GM and Ford shares are tumbling further on the news…
We will now assess this announcement, together with other measures the US is envisaging in the next days.
The EU will continue to seek negotiated solutions, while safeguarding its economic interests.
As a major trading power and a strong community of 27 Member States, we will jointly protect our workers, businesses and consumers across our European Union.
“Our automobile industry will flourish like it’s never flourished before,” Trump commented, seemingly unflapped by the possibility of retaliation.
There’s a lot of nations to upset…
The auto tariffs are part of a broader reshaping of global relations by Trump, who plans to impose what he calls “reciprocal” taxes on April 2 that would match the tariffs, sales taxes charged by other nations.
* * *
Update (1315ET): White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt just confirmed that President Trump will hold a press conference at 4pmET today to announce auto tariffs.
The level and scope of the auto tariffs are not clear, including what, if any, exemptions would be included or considered.
It’s also unclear if the tariffs would go into effect immediately or over time, and whether they would hit finished vehicles or also auto parts.
* * *
Following President Trump’s comments earlier in the week that he would detail the scale of auto levies in the coming days, Bloomberg reports that – citing the usual people familiar with the matter – the Trump administration is readying an announcement on auto tariffs as soon as today.
Bloomberg adds that the people shared the timing of the expected announcement on condition of anonymity, to discuss plans not yet made public.
One of the people, though, cautioned that the president’s plans could still shift.
This is a move that would escalate Trump’s fight with global trading partners ahead of a broader tariff push next week.
The broad market was already lower but accelerated on the report…
Treasury yields also sank…
The president has said the levies will help spur growth in the domestic auto sector and force companies to move more production to the US.
The move risks disrupting operations for North American automakers, who rely on highly integrated chains across the US, Mexico and Canada; and Ford and GM shares are falling on the report.
Minutes after Bloomberg’s report, the following headlines hit:
- *GM CEO MARY BARRA TO MEET TRUMP ADMIN. OVER TARIFFS: FREE PRESS
- *FORD CHAIR BILL FORD TO MEET TRUMP ADMIN THIS WEEK: FREE PRESS
The level and scope of the auto tariffs are not clear, including what, if any, exemptions would be included or considered. It’s also unclear if the tariffs would go into effect immediately or over time.
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