Republican Operative Warns This Deep Red State Is Turning Against Trump

This forecast could be detrimental for Republicans…

Republican strategist Karl Rove warned on Fox News this weekend that President Donald Trump and the GOP could face growing political fallout in Texas if Hispanic support continues to slide amid heightened immigration enforcement tactics.

Rove made the comments during a Saturday afternoon appearance on The Journal Editorial Report, where host Gerry Baker questioned him about Trump’s standing on immigration — an issue that has long been central to the president’s political appeal but has recently become a liability in polling.

Baker pointed to Trump’s declining numbers and asked Rove about the political impact of the president’s unpopularity on immigration. Rove responded that the administration’s public approval on the issue had “actually began declining well before the incident last week in Minneapolis,” referencing the shooting of Renee Good by an ICE agent.

The longtime GOP operative argued that Americans tend to be “forgiving” of illegal immigrants who have “kept their nose clean and are contributing to the economy,” and said Trump had missed an opportunity to more effectively frame his immigration record by not going to the border region himself.

According to Rove, Trump “fumbled the ball” by not traveling to south Texas to highlight his success at securing the border, even as his administration has continued to emphasize its aggressive enforcement posture.

Baker then pressed Rove on what the shift could mean for Republican electoral prospects, especially after Trump’s relatively strong showing among Hispanic voters in 2024 — a constituency the GOP has increasingly targeted as it seeks to expand its coalition in battleground states.

“These ICE tactics seem to make-, have particular concerns, understandably, for Hispanic voters. Hispanic voters, again, source of tremendous strength for Trump in the election 2024. You know the numbers he got, what, over 40% of the Hispanic vote? He’s now registering way, way below that in approval ratings among Hispanics. How much of a problem is that for the GOP?” Baker asked.

“Big, because this is a variable group whose movement into the Republican column in 2024 helped elect Donald Trump to a second term and helped Republicans hold the Senate and the House. But no, it’s a problem. And you know, we’re going to see it here in Texas. You can just see the support for Republicans in Texas diminishing, despite the fact that initially there was enormous support for the action in securing the border,” Rove replied.

Rove argued that support for tougher immigration measures initially ran high in border communities, including heavily Hispanic regions of Texas, because residents were directly experiencing strain on local resources. He described the impact as spanning essential services and public safety.

“These were communities that were being hard hit. Their hospitals, their food kitchens, their community safety, all of these things were being adversely affected by this vast flood of illegals coming across the border, and the fact that the president stopped it and stopped it without a new law-, all we had was a new president, but he got it done,” Rove continued.

Texas has long been a Republican stronghold in statewide races, but Democrats have made gradual gains in recent election cycles, fueled in part by population growth in major metro areas and shifting turnout patterns. While Trump made noticeable gains with Hispanic voters in 2024 compared to past Republican nominees, analysts have noted that the group remains diverse and politically fluid, with voting behavior often shaped by regional differences, economic concerns, and views on immigration policy.

Rove’s warning suggests that Republicans may not be able to assume that 2024’s gains will hold if immigration enforcement actions generate new controversy — particularly if the party is seen as targeting or alienating communities it recently made inroads with.

READ NEXT: US Army Readies 1,500 Troops For Possible Minnesota Deployment