CNN Chief Data Analyst Harry Enten says Democrats have reason to be cautious despite leading Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, arguing the party’s advantage is well below the margins that preceded its previous midterm wave elections.
Appearing Monday on “CNN News Central,” Enten pointed to recent CNBC and Washington Post polling that gives Democrats an average four-point lead on the generic House ballot. While that puts the party ahead nationally, he said the number falls far short of where Democrats stood before capturing the House in 2006 and again in 2018.
“They show a big ‘Uh-oh!’ worry sign, at least compared to history,” Enten said.
Smaller lead than past wave elections
Enten noted Democrats held roughly a 12-point generic ballot lead before the 2006 midterms and about a 10-point advantage before the 2018 elections, both of which resulted in the party winning control of the House.
“Yes, they’re ahead, but they’re ahead … by only four points, which is significantly less than what we saw in 2018 and 2006,” Enten said. “So as I said, this is an ‘uh-oh,’ this is a warning sign.”
Anchor John Berman underscored the point, joking that “four isn’t 10. And it’s not 12.”
“No, no, they taught me that back in pre-K that four is not 10 or 12,” Enten replied.
Redistricting raises the bar
Enten argued Democrats face an additional obstacle beyond polling numbers: the congressional map.
Because of Republican advantages created through redistricting, he said Democrats likely need to win the national House vote by roughly three to four percentage points just to have a realistic chance of securing a majority. That leaves their current polling edge with little room for slippage.
“You’re right on the edge with this four-point lead … right on the edge of even getting that majority,” Enten said, adding that the current numbers are “far from a guarantee” Democrats will retake the House.
Republicans outperforming Trump among his voters
Enten also highlighted another trend he found noteworthy.
While President Donald Trump’s approval rating among his 2024 supporters has softened, Republicans continue to run substantially stronger than Trump himself on the congressional ballot with those same voters.
According to Enten, Republicans hold an 87-point advantage among Trump’s 2024 voters in House preference polling, compared with Trump’s net approval rating of plus-66 among those voters.
“There is a chunk of 2024 Trump voters who right now aren’t so hot to trot on Donald Trump but are still very much in the Republican camp,” Enten said.
A warning, not a prediction
The 2026 election is still more than 100 days away, and Enten cautioned that the political landscape could change significantly before voters cast their ballots.
Even so, he said the current data should temper expectations of an inevitable Democratic wave.
Instead of resembling the political environments that produced sweeping Democratic House victories in 2006 and 2018, Enten said today’s numbers point to a far more competitive race, with Republicans remaining firmly in contention.
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