Republican Congressman Byron Donalds is leading the early field in the race to become Florida’s next governor, according to a new poll released by Emerson College Polling.
The survey shows Donalds with 46 percent support among likely Republican primary voters, placing him well ahead of other declared and potential candidates. His nearest competitors — Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins and investor James Fishback — each garnered just 4 percent support. Former Florida House Speaker Paul Renner followed with 3 percent, while another 3 percent of respondents selected other candidates.
Despite Donalds’ sizable lead, the race remains fluid, with 39 percent of respondents indicating they are undecided. Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, described Donalds as the “clear favorite” at this stage, noting that he leads across all age groups and holds especially strong support among older voters.
Donalds has also received backing from President Donald Trump, a factor that may be contributing to his early advantage. His campaign may have gained further momentum through endorsements from prominent Republican figures, including Senator Rick Scott and House Speaker Mike Johnson.
The poll also explored a hypothetical general election matchup between Donalds and former Congressman David Jolly, who has since switched from the Republican Party to the Democratic Party. In that scenario, Donalds leads with 44 percent support compared to Jolly’s 39 percent, though 17 percent of voters remain undecided, leaving significant room for shifts as the race develops.
Florida’s recent electoral history underscores the potential for close contests. While current Governor Ron DeSantis won reelection decisively in 2022 against Charlie Crist, his initial 2018 victory over Andrew Gillum was decided by a narrow margin of less than half a percentage point.
At the same time, Florida has undergone a broader political shift in recent years, trending decisively Republican across statewide and local elections with few exceptions. Analysts have pointed to significant population changes following the COVID-19 pandemic, as large numbers of residents relocated from more restrictive, Democratic-leaning states to Florida, drawn in by DeSantis’s leadership. This influx has coincided with Republican gains in voter registration and electoral performance across multiple regions of the state, reshaping Florida from a perennial swing state into one that has leaned more reliably Republican in recent cycles.
The Emerson poll was conducted from March 29 to March 31, 2026, surveying 1,125 likely voters and carrying a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
In addition to polling strength, Donalds’ campaign recently reported significant fundraising success, announcing more than $22 million raised in the first quarter of 2026 from over 10,000 donors. The financial backing and early polling advantage position him as a major contender as the race to succeed term-limited Governor DeSantis begins to take shape.
Looking ahead, Donalds has outlined a vision focused on building upon Florida’s recent economic and policy trajectory, with priorities including infrastructure improvements, lowering insurance costs, and expanding the state’s role in the financial sector.
READ NEXT: Trump Preemptively Endorses Byron Donalds For Florida Governor
