Can Republicans Retake the Senate? Here’s Where Things Stand

As of this report, there are eight weeks, one day, nine hours and 55 minutes until Election Day. By all accounts, control of the Senate hangs on a knife's edge with control slightly favoring one party or the other depending on who you ask.

FiveThirtyEight's latest statistical analysis says Democrats have the edge to retain control of Congress's upper chamber. FiveThirtyEight ties the Democrats' status as slight favorites to Republicans supposedly selecting weak candidates in battleground states. According to its Deluxe model's most recent 40,000 election simulations, Democratic nominee John Fetterman has an 80% of defeating Republican Mehmet Oz. Yet, RealClearPolitics projects Republicans will pick up two Senate seats (in Georgia and Nevada), while Democrats won't gain one, giving Republicans a narrow but clear majority.

Democrats have shown momentum coming out of the summer's special elections. But polls out of states where their party's nominee has led indicate significant tightening as we approach the final campaign stretch.

Turnout will likely be the biggest factor come Election Day.

If Democrats lose the House, their ability to pass an ambitious legislative agenda, like the cynically misnamed Inflation Reduction Act will die. But a Democratic-controlled Senate will be justifiably touted as a major victory for the Democratic Party.

For starters, a Democratic Senate will be able to approve President Biden's judicial nominees with ease, just as then-Majority Leader Mitch McConnell did, with ruthless efficiency, even after Nancy Pelosi recaptured the speaker's gavel.

With a simple majority, McConnell helped to ensure Trump's transformation of the judiciary. When Republicans controlled the Senate, they could also shoot down the agenda promoted by House Democrats and any bills that passed that chamber. Expect a Democratic-controlled Senate to do the same, blunting GOP investigations if Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) keeps his title as majority leader.

And it's not inconceivable that a Democratic-controlled Senate would decline to try an impeachment case if a GOP-led House brought charges against a member of the Biden administration or the president himself.

With the stakes now crystal clear, it's important to cut through the partisan noise and see where things stand.

Based on the latest insights, here are the seven most competitive Senate seats in 2022.

Georgia – Herschel Walker

The latest poll from Phillips Academy shows Republican and former University of Georgia Heisman Trophy winner Herschel Walker with a two-point lead over incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock (D). FiveThirtyEight's updated polling average has Warnock up 1.8% — a measurable improvement for Walker from where he stood at the beginning of the month. Another survey, commissioned by FOX 5 Atlanta and Insider Advantage gives Walker the edge, 47% to 44%. The three-point lead for Walker is a stark change from the last FOX 5/Insider Advantage poll which gave Warnock a three-point lead.

The race will go to a December runoff if neither candidate receives a majority of the vote on Election Day.

Pennsylvania – Dr. Mehmet Oz

Little more than a week ago, a Franklin & Marshall College poll put Democratic nominee, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman comfortably ahead with a 13-point lead over Republican Mehmet Oz. The survey suggested that Fetterman had the support of 76% of Democrats, while Oz's GOP support was at a tepid 62%. However, Oz has seen a resurgence and is running with a sense of urgency that was sorely lacking earlier in the campaign. At the same time, Fetterman's tough guy, blue collar image is coming under increasing fire whenever it's compared to his far-left positions and privileged upbringing. The latest poll from Emerson College shows Fetterman with a four-point lead. Bottom line? Expect this race to come down to the wire.

Nevada – Adam Laxalt

The latest Trafalgar Group poll shows Republican Adam Laxalt with a three-point lead over Democrat incumbent Catherine Cortez Mastro. A subsequent poll commissioned by AARP showed Cortez Mastro with a one-point lead but also that she's hemorrhaging support from Hispanic voters. RealClearPolitics ranks the race as a toss-up between the two candidates. Still, when an incumbent hasn't broken 50% in any poll since last September, you can bet they're in trouble.

Arizona – Blake Masters

According to FiveThirtyEight's average, venture capitalist and author Blake Masters (R) is running 7.9-points behind astronaut-turned-senator Mark Kelly (D). The most recent poll by Trafalgar Group, which has an A- pollster grade from FiveThirtyEight, shows Kelly leading by a significantly more competitive four percentage point margin. Late last week, two additional polls revealed the race in the Grand Canyon State might be a true toss-up. Emerson's poll of 627 likely Arizona voters showed Kelly with only a two-point lead, well within the survey's 3.9% margin of error.

Wisconsin – Ron Johnson

Trafalgar Group's latest poll shows Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes with a 2.3-point lead over incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson (R). Badger State voters elected Barnes their lieutenant governor during 2018's blue wave. But Johnson's strategy of calling out Barnes for running “cutesy ads” to hide the fact that he's a radical leftist seems to be working. RealClearPolitics currently projects the GOP will hold this seat, a sentiment we agree with, especially if Johnson keeps the spotlight on Barnes' support for the defund police movement, radical bail reform, high taxes and open borders.

North Carolina – Ted Budd

According to FiveThirtyEight, Congressman Ted Budd (R) is slightly favored to defeat former chief justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court Cheri Beasley (D) and keep the Senate seat being vacated by Richard Burr in GOP hands. While the Tar Heel State tilts right, Public Policy Polling found Beasley had a one-point lead over Budd in its most recent poll. Overall, FiveThirtyEight gives Budd a 64% chance of winning. Meanwhile, the RealClearPolitics polling average has Budd leading Beasley by an uncomfortably tight 0.6 points.

Ohio – J.D. Vance

According to Five ThirtyEight, Trump-endorsed best-selling author J.D. Vance is favored to beat Congressman Tim Ryan (D). Of course, that doesn't mean Ryan's defeat is inevitable. Recent polls from Trafalgar Group and Emerson College, each with A- rankings from FiveThirtyEight both reported Vance in the lead. Trafalgar reported Vance with a five-point lead and Emerson reported Vance with a three-point lead. While Vance has never trailed in this race, he has made plenty of unforced errors from traveling to Israel — 6,000 miles from the Buckeye State — earlier in the summer while Rep. Ryan meet with Ohioans. It seems Vance has gotten the message, and it's undeniable he'd be a staunch defender of conservative principles. However, the race is a salient remainder that even though Ohio has shifted red, it's not out of the Democrats' grasp yet.

And complacency will make sure of that.

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