A prominent election forecaster is shifting the political map slightly toward Democrats in several key gubernatorial contests — though Republicans still enter the cycle with a structural advantage.
In an update released Thursday, Sabato’s Crystal Ball revised its ratings in six gubernatorial races in Democrats’ favor.
The most notable shift came in Georgia, where the open-seat race to replace term-limited Gov. Brian Kemp (R) moved from “leans Republican” to a pure “toss-up,” signaling a genuinely competitive battleground.
In Arizona, the race shifted from “toss-up” to “leans Democratic,” giving incumbent Gov. Katie Hobbs a clearer edge as she seeks reelection.
Elsewhere, Republicans’ grip appears to have softened but not collapsed. Ohio’s open gubernatorial race was downgraded from “likely Republican” to “leans Republican,” suggesting a more competitive environment in a state that has trended red in recent years. Meanwhile, three Democratic-held states — Minnesota, New York, and Rhode Island — were upgraded from “likely Democratic” to “safe Democratic,” reinforcing the party’s strength in reliably blue territory.
“Despite a litany of gubernatorial rating changes today in favor of Democrats, Republicans may still break the usual pattern of midterm net gubernatorial losses for the president’s party,” Sabato’s Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman wrote in an analysis.
“Meanwhile, Democrats have an opportunity of their own to do something they haven’t done since the 2010 election: hold a majority of the nation’s governorships. But it’s a challenging path.”
The broader landscape underscores that tension. Republicans currently control 26 governorships compared to Democrats’ 24. Even with recent momentum, Democrats face a narrow path to a majority. According to Sabato’s projections, one Democratic-held seat — Kansas — is expected to flip Republican, meaning Democrats would need to hold all remaining seats and flip at least three GOP-controlled governorships to gain control nationwide.
Georgia stands out as the Democrats’ most promising pickup opportunity. With Kemp termed out, both parties are preparing for a high-stakes open-seat battle in a state that has become increasingly competitive over the past decade. Arizona, by contrast, represents a test of Democratic durability: Hobbs is one of only two Democratic governors running for reelection in a state won by Donald Trump in 2024, making her race a key indicator of ticket-splitting and suburban voter behavior.
Ohio may be the sleeper contest. Despite its recent Republican lean at the presidential level, early polling suggests Democrat Amy Acton has an edge over Republican candidate Vivek Ramaswamy in the race to succeed term-limited Gov. Mike DeWine (R). If that dynamic holds, it could signal broader Democratic competitiveness in Midwestern states that have shifted right in recent cycles.
Taken together, the rating changes suggest a more competitive gubernatorial map than might typically be expected in a midterm environment.
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