Vice President JD Vance is no longer the clear favorite to lead the Republican Party after President Donald Trump leaves office. Fresh polling shows his once dominant position in the 2028 field tightening fast, raising questions about how closely his fortunes are tied to Trump’s weakening approval ratings.
A McLaughlin & Associates survey conducted Nov. 17 to 24 among 439 Republican and GOP-leaning voters shows Vance’s lead over Donald Trump Jr. dropping from 28 points in September to just 10 points this month.
In August, Vance led Trump Jr. 36% to 16%. That widened to a 28-point margin in September before narrowing to 18 points in October, 38% to 20%. The new November numbers show Vance at 34% and Trump Jr. at 24%, according to Newsweek.
The slide comes as Trump posts some of the lowest approval ratings of his second term. An Economist/YouGov survey last month recorded Trump at 39% approval and 58% disapproval, his weakest showing since returning to office in January.
Analysts say that slump is rippling through the rest of the administration.
Mark Shanahan, who teaches American politics at the University of Surrey, told Newsweek that Vance is paying for his proximity to the president. He noted that polls this early are limited in value, but the vice president’s challenge is structural.
“For the moment, he has to be in lockstep with the president,” Shanahan said. “If he’s not, he simply isn’t doing the job he was elected to fulfill. So, while Trump’s polling is languishing, Vance suffers.”
Trump, barred by the 22nd Amendment from running again, has fueled speculation about the next nominee by praising Vance while refusing to endorse anyone.
In October, he offered an expansive list of names. “We have great people… We have JD, obviously, the vice president is great. I think [Secretary of State] Marco’s [Rubio] great,” Trump said. “I’m not sure if anybody would run against those. I think if they ever formed a group, it would be unstoppable.”
Vance has tried to cool the speculation. Speaking with Sean Hannity earlier this month, he said he has thought about what a future campaign might look like but is focused on governing.
“The American people elected me to do a job right now, and my job is to do it,” he said.
Trump Jr. took a far different approach when asked in March about his own ambitions. He unloaded on the premise that he helped Vance win the vice presidency to position himself for 2028, using several expletives and dismissing the idea as baseless.
Other potential contenders are moving quietly. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, for example, is reportedly preparing for a possible presidential run.
With major candidates unlikely to declare before the 2026 midterms, the GOP field remains unsettled. And Vance’s once commanding position is now far less certain, leaving Republicans with a fluid and fast-shifting race.
READ NEXT: Principal Accused In ‘Chilling’ Plot To Lure And Ambush ICE Agents
We still have quite a bit of time before the ‘28 elections. If the economy turns around and many of Trumps mandates take a positive turn with Vance standing beside him, blue cities continue on a socialist downward slide, most Americans will easily gravitate toward what they see working in their favor. It’s waaaaay to early to be guessing the outcome of ‘28.