A Shift in the Race
Polling expert Nate Silver has identified Vice President Kamala Harris as a slight favorite in the race for the White House. Sunday’s announcement is the first time Silver’s projections have favored Harris in the presidential contest.
Analyzing the Data
In a post on his Substack, Silver revealed that his computer models now predict Harris to win a slim majority of the time. However, he cautioned that the election is still a “toss-up,” acknowledging the volatile nature of the current political climate.
Context and Comparisons
The Daily Beast provided additional insights:
Silver’s model, which compiles the results of statewide polls and weights them based on reliability, showed Trump polling ahead of the Democratic candidate for most of July—including during the weeks immediately after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race. Harris began to lead the former president on July 31, according to the data published on Sunday.
Harris now leads Trump with 45.5% of the expected vote, compared to Trump’s 44.1%.
According to Silver’s calculations, Harris now has 50.5% chance to win the general election, compared to Trump’s 48.8%. Harris also now has a 65.9% chance to win the popular vote—but the predicted elector share remains close, with the vice president only beating Trump by about 18 votes in the Electoral College.
The same model had independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. polling at about 5% in the general election.
On Thursday, August 2, Silver called the election a “toss-up” for the first time. Before this, he had resisted labeling it as such because of President Biden’s challenges in swing states. They were apparent even before his debate performance jolted Democrats.
At that time, Silver’s models ran 40,000 simulations, showing former President Donald Trump winning the Electoral College 56.9% of the time. However, in the popular vote, Harris edged out Trump, leading 48% to 46.9%.
According to Silver, the situation was akin to a poker “flip,” with Democrats holding ace-king suited and Republicans with pocket jacks.
A Turn in the Tide
Just three days later, the dynamics have shifted, with Democrats now having a significantly better chance.
Why Trust Nate Silver?
Nate Silver is regarded as one of the most reliable polling experts in the United States due to his robust analytical skills and proven track record in accurately predicting the 2020 presidential election outcome.
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Did nate silver’s model in 2020 take into the mass voter fraud that happened?
If Harris wins the election, honestly (doubtful) or by cheating (likely), she would complete the destruction of the country that Obama began and Biden continued. The United States would then be added to the growing list of 3rd world countries and be open to further the invasion that Biden has already started. The time remaining for this country to take the necessary measures to keep this from happening is running short. We need to make a COMPLETE change of the guard in Washington DC, or kiss any and all freedom goodbye!
Well if folks think Giggles is doing such a fine job, I have one question to ask … so exactly how is our southern border?? Kamala is supposed to be the “Border Czar” and I am not sure she can even find the border.
What a complete CROCK OF CRAP.
What complete CRAP. Only a fool would believe this BS.