Arizona Senate candidate Kari Lake (R) remains in contention as vote counts continue to be tallied in the state’s closely watched U.S. Senate race. Though trailing progressive Democrat Ruben Gallego, the latest numbers offer a possible pathway to victory for the former gubernatorial candidate, according to election analysts.
Lake, who narrowly lost Arizona’s 2022 gubernatorial race, could benefit from the momentum of her high-profile supporter, President-elect Donald Trump. Trump’s renewed popularity in Arizona has been a significant factor in the election landscape, marking a substantial shift since 2020.
NEW: Trump gained ground significantly in 48 of 50 states. pic.twitter.com/g8oGpEU9lo
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 7, 2024
According to a recent ballot update, Lake gained margins similar to what she would need to overtake Gallego. The Associated Press currently reports Gallego leading Lake with 50.1% to her 47.9%, a difference of about 52,000 votes with 69% of the ballots counted.
Ronald J. Hansen from the Arizona Republic has more:
Gallego, a five-term member of Congress and the favorite to win the contest entering the election hasn’t posted on social media since a tweet election night thanking poll workers for their service.
Lake, a former Fox 10 newscaster who cut into his polling lead in the final weeks of the race, urged her followers the morning after Election Day to ensure their provisional ballots are counted.
Arizona,
— Kari Lake (@KariLake) November 6, 2024
This race is going to go down to the wire!
We need ALL HANDS ON DECK to cure ballots and ensure the vote of every Arizonan counts.
Go to https://t.co/0k47QcabSp and get involved NOW.
In 2022, Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes won her race with the votes that she picked up from provisional ballots. That race, which she won by 280 votes, was the closest statewide race in Arizona history.
Lake has also repeatedly noted President-elect Donald Trump’s victory and pointed to complaints about the pace of vote counting in Maricopa County in a handful of tweets.
Reasons for Arizona’s Prolonged Ballot Count
Arizona’s ballot-counting process is among the most complex in the nation, with multiple factors contributing to the extended timeline:
High Volume of Early and Mail-In Ballots
Arizona sees a significant percentage of early and mail-in voting, with ballots accepted until 7 p.m. on Election Day. Each of these ballots requires a signature verification step, which is time-consuming but critical to ensuring accuracy in the final count.
Late Submission of Early Ballots
A sizable portion of Arizona voters opt to drop off their early ballots on Election Day itself, leading to a surge in ballots that cannot be processed until after polls close.
Complex Ballots with Numerous Contests
Arizona’s ballots, particularly in Maricopa County, can be extensive, often spanning two pages with multiple races and propositions. In the 2024 general election, the average ballot featured 79 different contests, adding to the workload of election officials and extending the counting time.
Verification Requirements for Ballots
Arizona law mandates rigorous verification for both early and provisional ballots, including signature checks and a curing period for voters to resolve any issues with their ballots. This process, essential for election integrity, also contributes to the pace of ballot counting.
Recent Legislative Changes
Recent changes to Arizona election laws require poll workers to log the number of mail ballot envelopes submitted at each location before transferring them to central counting facilities. This extra step, implemented in February 2024, has added a layer of complexity to the process.
While Gallego maintains a lead, election officials stress that counting will continue. Observers note that the final outcome may not be clear for several days.
Depending on the results, Republicans are expected to have 53 or 54 seats in the U.S. Senate.
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The longer it takes, the more they steal elections. This was proven in 2020. Best wishes to Kari. I sure hope she wins.